The uptrend continues with the PMO index at the top of the range, but Thursday and Friday were very weak days in the market. The trend is extended at six weeks, and a couple of the short-term indicators are starting to turn lower.
 

The SPX has dipped under the 5-day and it has broken its short-term uptrend line.
 

The 10-day Call/Put is showing a decisive looking red candle.
 

Here is the NASDAQ MACD which has the look of an indicator that is getting ready to roll over.
 

The Long-Term Outlook

I'm struggling to find interesting charts today, so I'm scrolling through some old chart lists and I found two that I like.

In order for the market to power higher, it needs a healthy number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs, and we don't have that. Not yet anyway. The chart below shows that the market has retraced higher, but the 50-day average of new highs is not confirming.
 

These indexes usually move in the same direction, and they probably will in the future which works against SPX earnings.
 

Contrarian sentiment is beginning to look negative for stocks.

In a bull market, I generally get worried when the number of bulls is over 55%, and I'm a seller when it exceeds 60%. However, we are in a bear market, and this means that the threshold is lower. I'm not sure how much lower, but I think we are getting close to the peak number of bulls.

I'm calling it. This survey of newsletter writers is now negative towards stock prices from a contrarian point-of-view.

This chart shows Treasury yields are still under their 50-day averages which continues to favor Treasury prices.

I don't have any special interesting insights into this market. My opinion is that we have just witnessed a crash followed by a classic bull trap retracement. But, let's face it, I don't really know, and no one else really knows either. But opinions do not matter. Let's just invest based on what the charts are telling us.

Outlook Summary

I do my best trading when I am patient and disciplined.
The economy is in recession as of March 28
The short-term trend is up as of March 24

Contrarian Sentiment favors lower prices as of May 2.

The medium-term trend for Treasury bonds is up as of Jan. 25 (prices higher, yields lower)

Strategy During a Bull Market

• Buy large-cap stocks and ETFs at the lows of the medium or short-term market trends
• Buy small-cap growth-stocks on breaks to new highs in the early stages of market trends
• Reduce buying when the market trend is at the top of the range
• Take partial profits when the market uptrend starts to struggle at the highs

Trader Discipline

• Never invest based on personal politics
• Take pride in sticking to the trading plan
• Don't give in to fear, greed or anger