Stock Market Commentary

We are 9 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on January 29.

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An extended beta phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term low at 3,694 on the S&P 500 index would signal the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

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The index closed moderately higher today, returning to recent highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 9 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 29. An extended beta phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 3,694 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 1, with our best estimate being in the March 26 to April 1 range.

• Last STCL: January 29, 2021
• Cycle Duration: 31 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bullish
• Next STCL Window: Now through April 1; best estimate in the March 26 to April 1 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the 50-day moving average at 3,855 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,700 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).