We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on March 24.

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A quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. A quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 15 to May 21 range.

• Last STCL: March 23, 2020
• Cycle Duration: 26 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 15 to May 21 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast a move up to congestion resistance in the 3,000 area.
• Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,458 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,237.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).