A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on March 30. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on March 24.

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The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish short-term trend and favor additional short-term weakness.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.

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Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on March 30. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 14 to May 20 range.

• Last STCL: March 23, 2020
• Cycle Duration: 7 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 14 to May 20 range.

• Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred today.
• Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger occurred today.
• Signal Status: Cycle high signal was generated today.
• Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent short-term high at 2,630 would reconfirm the oversold reaction from last week and predict a return to congestion resistance in the 2,750 area.
• Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would forecast a return to the previous short-term low at 2,237.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80 probable).