Short-Term Forecast For Tuesday, May 12

We are 15 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on March 24. The beta high (BH) of the current cycle is overdue and it could form at any time if it has not already occurred today.

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An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cycle Analysis

We are 15 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. The beta high (BH) is overdue and it could form at any time, if it has not already occurred today. A quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 18 to May 22 range.

  • Last STCL: March 23, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 35 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through May 22; best estimate in the May 18 to May 22 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.
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