We are 13 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on May 14. The alpha high (AH) of the current cycle will likely form sometime during the next 3 sessions.

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A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,766 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,940 would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 13 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 14. The alpha high (AH) of the current cycle will likely form sometime during the next 3 sessions. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 2,766 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,940 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from June 24 to July 15, with our best estimate being in the July 6 to July 13 range.

• Last STCL: May 14, 2020
• Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next STCL Window: June 24 to July 15; best estimate in the July 6 to July 13 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,943 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 2,801.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).