Short-Term Forecast For Tuesday, Jan. 14

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.

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The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from January 14 to February 1, with our best estimate being in the January 24 to January 30 range.

  • Last STCL: December 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 28 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: January 14 to February 1; best estimate in the January 24 to January 30 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below uptrend support near 3,240 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,163.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

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