Short-Term Forecast For Tuesday, Feb. 18

Stock Market Commentary

We are 11 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.

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The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 11 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 13 to April 2, with our best estimate being in the March 25 to March 31 range.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: March 13 to April 2; best estimate in the March 25 to March 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the recent short-term high at 3,380 would reconfirm the uptrend from October and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the 50-day moving average at 3,260 would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 3,150 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).

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