Short-Term Forecast For Tuesday, Aug. 3

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on June 27.

(Click on image to enlarge)

An extended beta phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 3,009 would signal the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding at recent highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on June 26. An extended beta phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 3,009 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 7 to August 27, with our best estimate being in the August 18 to August 24 range.

  • Last STCL: June 26, 2020
  • Cycle Duration: 25 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: August 7 to August 27; best estimate in the August 18 to August 24 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below congestion support in the 3,000 area would confirm the start of a new downtrend and predict additional losses.
1 2
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.