Shifting Winds In Global Aerospace

In the chart below, we show the relative performance of shares of Boeing (BA) and Airbus (traded in France under the ticker AIR, or with the US ADR EADSY). As shown, the ratio of the two share prices has moved back and forth in a range for the past two decades. Boeing is currently much more richly valued, has a drastically higher return on capital, but is facing challenges related to Boeing 737-MAX crashes and trade disputes, including a new EU-China civil air safety pact reported yesterday. When the line is rising, Airbus is outperforming Boeing and vice versa. With a recent spike following a low at the bottom end of the 20-year range, is Airbus now set to outperform for a much longer period of time?  

(Click on image to enlarge)

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