Presidential Wake Of Fluff

One major factor of uncertainty may now be removed from financial markets, possibly paving the way for a prolonged period of exceptional stability for investors.

President Donal Trump has officially kicked off his 2020 presidential campaign.

From now until November 2020, Donald J Trump is likely to be on his best behavior, at least as far as the markets are concerned. 

Traditional Markets

The long-awaited and much-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be delivered at 2:00 PM New York Time followed by a special press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30.

The markets have been salivating lately over the extremely dovish turn the Fed has taken lately and the stock market is within range of its all-time high once again.

Will the markets get everything they want from the Fed today? From the way I see it, it doesn't seem likely. Don't get me wrong. Markets rarely drop when Powell is talking, but somehow it seems that the Fed can't get any more dovish without raising some serious alarm bells.

It's important to note that even though stocks are on a tear, fund managers are still quite pessimistic. Analysts from Bank of America have recently concluded that the markets are the most bearish they've been since the financial crisis. 

Which of course, is being taken as a positive sign by many pundits who say that they can't get much more bearish so the next move must be bullish.

This chart from Bloomberg shows pretty clearly how portfolios are currently much less into risky assets and much more into safe havens then they usually are.

In any case, it will be an interesting event today.

Libra's Wake

To be perfectly honest, I was really wrong about yesterday's Facebook announcement. My feeling was that we would get a small press release or blog post confirming which of the widespread rumors were true and which were not.

Instead, we received a massive data dump with plenty of documentation and even an early look at the opensource code of the new 'blockchain'.

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Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of June 19th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

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