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Yesterday during his first day of back-to-back testimony in Washington, Fed Chair Powell signaled the policy rate is at its “peak for this tightening cycle," although he indicated that the central bank is not ready to begin cutting rates immediately Powell shared that he still expects a pivot to interest rate cuts this year. Powell will resume his testimony today at 10 AM ET, reiterating that perspective, which means we have little in the way of market-moving news this morning, leaving the market to relish that the expectation for rate cuts is not a matter of “if” but “when”. 

Other Fed Speakers today include Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (11:30 AM ET and 1:20 PM ET), and odds are they will back comments made during Powell’s testimony. After today’s market close, we will have a wave of potentially market-moving earnings reports from Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Costco (COST) given what they may signal about the smartphone and data center markets as well as the consumer. 

• Exports from China surged 7.1% YoY to $528.01 billion in January-February 2024 combined, following a 2.3% gain in December 2023 and beating market forecasts of a 1.9% rise, signaling that global trade is starting to recover.  Imports to China rose 3.5% YoY to $402.85 billion in the combined January-February 2024, beating market forecasts of a 1.5% growth and quickening from a 0.2% rise in December due to strong domestic demand during the year-end and Lunar New Year holidays.

• The US House of Representatives passed legislation funding a broad swath of the federal government through the fiscal year that began in October, as yet another threat of a partial shutdown looms. It now goes to the Senate for passage by Friday, before a midnight deadline when temporary funding expires for several Washington agencies.

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