Optimistic Again

Today stock markets are again optimistic, but not as optimistic as earlier this week, with the rally in the Dow-Jones at a low double-digit level. The big news here is that Warren Buffett, value-investor guru, has upped Berkshire Hathaway's holdings of three major US pharmaceutical stocks by about $1.8 bn per company. Buffett sold airline stocks and JP Morgan-Chase which revived with the virus jab news.

The drug majors nonetheless mostly were down taking down some non-US drug majors our portfolio is full of. Most foreign majors recovered quicker than the Americans I own, Merck and Bristol Myers. This doesn't reflect a negative view on the Oracle of Omaha as much as a new focus on COVID-19 drug-makers and a shock to the US drugstore industry. Amazon is now preparing to compete hard with your local drugstore chain with on-line drug sales at discount prices.

The US will extradite Salvador Cienfuegos to be tried in Mexico for having accepted money from drug cartels there when he was supposed to wipe them out. If he is not prosecuted there is nobody to blame except our southern neighbor. More on drugs follows plus other news.

Tech & Tel

*Chinese carmaker NIO reported after-hours results which handily beat forecasts in its latest quarter but because of worries about Xin Jinping undercutting Chinese management's independence the share fell nearly 9% overnight, although that level it is only off 2.9% since the opening here. Nio sales rose 146% to RMB 4.526 bn, $666.6 mn, beating the forecast of $664 mn narrowly. But its losses were well below consensus forecasts at RMB 1.047 bn, or $142.2 mn, and adjusted losses eliminating one-offs like stock-based compensation was $147 mn, or 12¢/ADR, well below the consensus forecast of a 20¢ loss. The adjusted figure is usually the one used and is usually lower that the gross loss, but not in this case. NIO also raised its forecasts for Q4 sales to 16,500-17,000 vehicles. It guided for sales of RMB RMB 6.435 bn and 6.258 bn ($947.9-921.8 mn) at today's exchange rate. This would be at least 120% over last year's Q4 and is well ahead of the current consensus of Q4 at $813 mn.

In Q3 it delivered 12,206 vehicles, of which 8,660 were ES6 autos. This compares with only 4,799 vehicles delivered in Q3 2019 and 10,331 delivered in the prior quarter. The main reason Nio stock fell is that it has risen ~1000%+ YTD plus fear of new pressure on Chinese companies from Beijing. It was rated long-term winner by JP Morgan Chase, the bank Warren Buffett sold, and two other analysts.

NIO is now down 2%. US rival Tesla was up 8.5% after an upgrade by Morgan-Stanley.

*UK Vodafone which reported Monday will sell its Vantage Towers to invest in mergers and acquisitions. This led CFRA analysts to reiterate its buy recommendation and raise the target price to $19 from $16 for VOD's stock. The company is imposing cost controls as its travel telco revenues suffer from the virus. CFRA expects it to gain as cellphone use rises and accepted VOD's estimate for its adjusted cash flow for the current fiscal year (to March) at euros 14.4-14.6 bn.

*A report on the global games market predicting growth of 20% this year because of quarantine, managed to omit any mention of Japanese Nintendo at all. It rose 38¢. We sold half NTDOY over the threat from bigger players.

*Money Show presenter Dan Sullivan recommended Mercado Libre, MELI. We told you first.

*Africa cellphone play Multichoice, MCHOY, is up 4.4% on hopes for emerging market growth.

*My accidental US find Qualcomm is up another 2.7%. QCOM.

*Tower Semiconductor, TSEM, Israeli, is back in the black at last over 5G barriers to Huawei.

Drugs

*Israeli BiolineRx launched a phase I trial for its CRXCR-4 Motixafortide to treat acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with covid-19 and other respiratory viral infections in Israel. Until now BLRX worked on cancer drugs. Its share gained 3.1% today hitting $2.31 on heavy volume but now is up only 2.7%. It is losing money more slowly than before and will report next on 2020 early next year when there may be some results of the trial. It uses a Dec. 1 fiscal year and handily beat consensus in its last report in June, by 63% (but still losing money).

*Another Israeli startup, Compugen, CGEN, gained 1.2% in sympathy. Teva fell 1.4%, sold to make room for the newbies. Israel lined up 2 million Moderna jabs in June before it proved it works.

*Dr. Reddy's of India also fell as did Grifols of Spain, RDY, and GRFS.

*Zymeworks ZYME ell 1.5%+ because another glioblastoma drug is coming from Kazia. As with the covid jabs you never want only one treatment.

*French Sanofi SNY got FDA fast track for rare diseases, Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor to treat throcytopenia, and avalglucosidase drug for Pompe disease.

*Pfizer PFE and German BioNTech BNTX will be given a full FDA license for their corona-virus jab.

*Glaxo GSK and Astra Zeneca AZN are down as Britain moves to close its deal with the EU and sterling rises.

*Eisai is up again by about 0.8%. ESALY is a major not dependent on a Biogen Alzheimer's drug.

Value Stocks and Funds

*Citigroup recommended Cemex as a value play today. CX gained 3.9% helped by the rising peso.

*CRH of Ireland was raised to buy by Deutsche Bank over new infrastructure spending in Europe and America. It will also gain if there is a deal to reduce tariffs between Ireland and Northern Ireland once Britain leaves the European Union to satisfy Pres.-elect Biden.

*Lazard Global Total Return Fund, LGI, increased its monthly dividend by 7.7% to 11¢. It was tipped today by John Cole Scott, a VA closed-end fund expert.

*Western Assets Emerging Markets Debt fund, EMD, chopped its quarterly divvy by 5.26% to 9¢.

*Standard Life Aberdeen, fund manager and insurer, SLFPY, is up 4.5% to $14.25.

*Swedish Investor gained 1.31%. IVSBF is a proxy for a Nordic closed-end fund but also in insurance.

*AAIGFAIA Asia Group, is up 2.8%. If coronavirus deaths fall, insurers make more money.

*Canada fell into deficit with the rest of the world in Nov., from a surplus in Oct. This may boost the discount at Canadian General Investments, in which case buy more. CGRIF typically trades at a 3rd below its net asset value because Canadians worry about currency factors more than US investors.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno rose 2.76% in Mexico today but FBASF is down 15.5% here. Go figure.

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