One Year Anniversary Of The COVID-19 Bull Market

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Today stock markets celebrated the anniversary of the start of the COVID-19 bull market a year ago by falling across the board. Our dollar rose which is bad for tech stocks and the news was bad for the sector I'm heavily invested in, healthcare. The portfolios are full of red ink but there are some winners.

Israeli voters are for the 4th time voting about whether or not to keep Benjamin Netanyahu in office, despite charges against him of corruption he can avoid by staying on. Israeli shares are in negative focus since the left is not likely to leave Israeli companies with low taxes at home because of their prestige abroad. But Netanyahu always outwits the left. He busily promises tax cuts despite rising inflation in the Jewish State. We start with the drug sector today.

Drugs

*Congressperson Bernie Sanders is proposing medicine price controls, scaring the market. The most left-wing democrat only gets some ideas to be taken up by Biden. This is not one of them.

*Astra Zeneca won a sell rating today from Goldman Sachs over a new problem with its US trials for its inoculation against COVID-19. The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases sought more data from the AZN US trials which yesterday seemed to show that its Oxford University jab was effective. The NIAID says that AZN only filed outdated dates leaving out failures to stop virus mutations. Given 48 hours to produce the missing data, AZN lost 3.8%.

*A tough line was also taken by the FDA against another global pharma company we own, Novo Nordisk. The regulator wants NVO data on a new manufacturing site for its manufacturing semaglutide for treating type 2 diabetes. This will be supplied during Q2 according to the Danish firm. It also lost because oral insulin from Oramed opened a second phase III trial and its shares rose 14%. It will challenge NVO's dominance of the market for diabetes drugs if it works.

*Teva, as the best known Israeli global company (if no longer the largest), tumbled 2.7% on fears of an

unlikely defeat for Netanyahu. Moreover, TEVA fell below its 3-month moving average yesterday which created a sales trigger for chartists and pushed down other Israeli drug plays.

*Swiss Roche ended a trial for a Huntington's disease drug with British Ixico plc which failed to work. This gives a bigger market share to Teva's existing Huntington's drug if markets are rational. RHHBY fell 2.71% which also is not rational as it had very good results to report from its Phase III trials antibody trials for halting COVID-19 in non-hospitalized infected patients. It is working with Regeneron.

*Its arch-rival Novartis (NVS), also Swiss, gained 0.33% for acing a phase III trial of radioligand Lu-PSMA-16 against castrate-resistant metastatic prostate cancer, a big need.

*Glaxo (GSK) was downed to neutral from overweight by SVB Leerink and fell 1.2% but recovered a bit.

*Our share in antibodies avoided the selloff, Spanish Grifols, which rose 3.5% on a Crédit Suisse upgrade to outperform. It uses blood plasma to try to cure diseases and recently began a share buyback which is nice for shareholders. It is a potential winner from Roche's COVID-19 results.

*My largest healthcare holding, US Thermo Electron is up 0.61%. It may be a reaction to Pfizer saying t will use mRNA to develop new jabs, not for COVID-19. Diagnosing them is a TMO specialty.

*Indian Dr Reddy's (RDY), is up a fraction.

*But the rest of the drug sector which we own or simply know about is in the red. Even the Japanese.

Finance

*Mitsubishi Finance (MSBHF), fell 2.94% and Sumitomo Finance (SMFG), fell 2.1%. The reason is very Japanese: that they failed to increase their guidance for the current Q4 when reporting earlier, meaning that Q4 is proving to be weak.

*CBOE, which is becoming a general bank and creator of ETFs for Bitcoins, named Catherine Clay as head of data access.

*Banco Latino-Americano de Comercio Exterieur was rated higher, at B++, boosting the stock. Its bane is scary but BLX is majority-owned by government trade finance bodies like Ex-Im and listed on the NYSE to keep them from anti-market stupidity by having real investors also owning its shares.

*Veolia is down as VEOEY is being pressured to consider negotiating with Suez. France likes single champions in its industries, in this case, water and sewage.

Industrials

*O What a Lovely War. Trouble in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia boosted shares of BAE Systems, the UK maker of military gear. It is also gaining from our US fights with China and Russia. And it is going to win mandates when airlines fly again.

*Meanwhile the region is developing new links, with Netanyahu winning a boost from investment in the Jewish State from the United Arab Emirates, which means real money, unlike earlier peace with Jordan and Egypt.

*The source of much of China's supply for extracting rare earths is from Myanmar and is being disrupted by the uprising against the military junta. This should boost our UUUU, Energy Fuels, an alternative, but the share is down 0.56% today.

*BP plc rose after it was tipped by Raymond James to rise to $29 from an earlier TP of $27. The rest of the oil patch sank with the oil price after new European lockdowns.

*Mexican Presidente AMLO is seeking “dialogues” with recipients of subsidies for clean energy like Bimbo, writes Eduardo Garcia. I wrote about how AMLO always looks for a deal back in May 2006 when he first ran for the high office. This after lunching with an academic trained in London who was an advisor to the lefty, who called him more a Lula than a Hugo Chavez. I think he was right.

*Cemex holds its conference call Thursday to be followed with an extraordinary general meeting, CX.

*David Goldman, writing in AsiaTimes, accuses Pres. Biden of “sleepwalking into a stagflation nightmare” with Russia and China. His political instincts tend to be wrong but he's good at music.

*My pick for 2021, Cosan, now trading as CSAN, gained 6.4% today at the open as it is visible again.

*Nio again lost in conjunction with other electric vehicle makers because oil is cheaper again.

*Despite higher copper prices, Antofagasta, which is a British company owning mines in Chile, is down because of election risks there. ANFGF is down a whopping 6.43% over warnings.

*However precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey (JMPLY) is up despite the Fed saying that bitcoins are substitutes for gold but not for the dollar.

Tech & Tele

*Nokia (NOK) signed up ClearWorld to put up LED poles in cities for 5G. No details are out.

*Naspers of South Africa is up 0.6% today in a sea of red ink. Dutch Prosus is also up a bit. NPSNY and PROSY gained despite Beijing demanding harsh conditions for Tencent to buy Huya, as part of its harassment of websites. Both are not really proxies for TCEHY any longer.

*Multichoice, spun off by Naspers, is up 3%. It sells telecom access and ads in emerging Africa.

*Ericsson gained 2.09% today on a recommendation for the Swedish equipment maker.

*Japanese Nintendo will make a new Switch which delivers 4K of data on TV using an Nvidia chip to upgrade. This will boost sales. NTDOY is a favorite of Abhimanyu Sisodia in India. It is up a dime.

*Mercado Libre gained 0.5% today. MELI is the Latin Amazon.

*Coupang (CPNG) is up nicely again, our Korean Amazon.

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