• The Nasdaq 100 initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but as you can see, we have really fallen since then.
• All things being equal, this is a market that is trying to sort out where to go next and you can see that this area here has been important more than once, going back multiple times.
• So, it does make a certain amount of sense that we are trying to form a base.

While the Nasdaq 100 looks a bit rough on the day, the reality is that we aren't breaking down lower than we had fallen previously, meaning the 19,129 level continues to hold, so far at least. We did see a spike in volume a couple of days ago, and this suggests that there's at least some fight in the market left.

Rallies Aren’t to Be Trusted. Yet.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Whether or not we can actually rally remains to be seen, but as things stand right now, if you just look at the long-term charts, it kind of puts some things into perspective. Yes, it's been ugly, but we've seen this a couple of times along the way on the upside. This is actually very similar to the pullback that we saw in summer of 2024.

At least at this point, I'm not saying it can't get worse, but I am saying that a little bit of perspective is probably needed here. If we can turn around and break above the 20,000 level, I suspect that you will see the Nasdaq 100 continue higher. But with the volatility being as high as it is right now, I think it's very difficult to expect that. Quite frankly, I don't short indices on the whole, maybe a couple of times here and there over the course of several years, I would rather let the market pick itself up and I'll just follow the natural order of things. Right now, we just don't have enough buying pressure to get the Nasdaq 100 overly exciting for me. I think you're in a wait and see type of mode.

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