Mostly Red Day

Our holdings in Soquimich, the Chilean fertilizer company, were not very lucrative because of misstatements over the value of the ADR which occurred between June 30, 2010, and March 18, 2015. A class-action lawsuit has been filed by the Borough of South Tyneside on behalf of the Tyne and Wear Pension Fund (of Britain) for a potential claim of $62,500,000. While we were among the victims of the SQM activities, from actions by members of the family of former Chilean dictator Pinochet who controlled SQM, we did not meet the dates for the UK pension fund's settlement. Our earliest purchase according to my records, was on Dec. 13, 2015, and our last May 2, 2019.

However, the fact that a New York Court is ruling on the claim of a British non-profit organization rather than ambulance-chasing lawyers marks a new level of enforcement for the ADR marketplace. We will not be profiting from the claim ourselves and in fact, we got out of SQM when the misstatements were made known, not at big losses, but I applaud the new enforcers.

Wall Street is fickle, and yesterday's huge rally in the Dow Jones, the best showing since June, was followed by another day of mostly red in markets.

Business newspaper article

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Latinas

*Mexico is the no. 2 market for Mercado Libre, MELI, after the Argentine Internet sales and finance firm sold operations at risk of covid-19 in Q4 2020. It accounted for revenues in Q4, at 80% vs 133% in Argentina. MELI sales rose 148.5% in 202 to $1.3 bn excluding forex and its payment volume (mercado pago) hit $15.9 bn, up 134.4% on the same basis but was only up 83.9% in $s. Merchandise volume gained 109.7%. The number of active users grew by 71,3% to 74 mn people. Items sold hit 229.4 mn up 109.5%. It earns financial revenues from off-platform transaction, financing fees, interest earned from merchant and consumer credit, and sales of wireless (mobile point-of-sale.)

MELI's new asset management product reached nearly $700 mn under management, and 15 mn users.

Alas, gross profit was $489 mn with a margin of 36.8% in Q4 while the prior year Q4 margin was 45.7%. Gross profit in Q4 2019 was not given. Operating expenses were up 36% to $514.2 mn so there was no profit in the end. MELI had an operating loss of $25.1 mn down from $68.9 mn in 2019. Interest earnings fell nearly 16% because of the pandemic except in Argentina where MELI kept a higher float. It also had interest expenses from factoring credit card receivables in Argentina and a $9.9 mn loss from the difference between the official Argentina peso rate and that which it uses for its stock repurchases. Q4 net losses before taxes at $44 mn were down from prior Q4 losses of $63 mn but once the taxman nipped the Argie gains and the lower real, net loss was $50.6 mn, of $1.02/share. It spent more on CAPEX, $254.1 mn vs $141.4 mn, and depreciation and amortization, $105mn vs $73.3 mn.

*Grupo Bimbo's US bakeries won the energy star certification for efficiency. GRBMF rose 8.33%.

*Mexichem Fluor, a sub of Orbia Advance Corp., will increase the wages of its unionized workers by 8%, writes Eduardo Garcia in Sentidocomun.mx.co today. MXCHF is the ticker symbol for Orbia.

*Tipped stock Cosan of Brazil, which should have been exempted from the selloff triggered by Jair Bolsonaro's removal of the CEO of Petrobras for raising the price of gasoline to match what is happening elsewhere, crashed today by 3.51% in European trading. It is $18.08. While CZZ does own gas stations in a joint venture with Royal Dutch Shell in Brazil and Argentina, they sell not only petrol but also cheaper ethylene alternative fuel produced by CZZ from sugarcane waste which cuts the price.

Energy

*I bought more Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure PLC, AY, yesterday after Harry explained why it needed to see an earnings drop. I paid $37.5 and today the share traded at $35.95-38.17 but is now at the low end. It goes ex-div Mar. 11 if you want to join me. Remember that your tax-free dividend gets taxed if you sell AY. It just bought a 135 mW California geothermal energy plant for $170 mn. We are already into geothermal through our stake in Ormat ORA, an Israeli-owned Nevada company.

*Trip.com TCOM reports at 7 pm my time today and is expected to show big drops in its earnings and sales from prior year. The stock is up over 31% in the last year and gained 0.43% today. Citibank rates it a buy now with a TP of $62 (vs $30 now) as it can attract 10 mn new subscribers and gain $1 bn in sales.

*NIO had bigger losses than expected reported this week but it also outlined a 133% rise in Q4 sales and a plan to deliver 20,000 to 20,500 vehicles in the current quarter, up 15% or more from Q4. producing revenues of $1.13-$1.16bn. It also aims to deliver 100,000 vehicles in the current fiscal year. The only thing missing is profits, but sometimes being the market leader is enough. What can go wrong includes chips that are in short supply for its new longer-life battery pack. Since its report, NIO is down to $44.88, off about 5% YTD, but well ahead of its $2.37/sh price of last March 23. Analysts stress that being number one is important in China and that the level of electric vehicle sales is expected to more than double to 10% in the next 2 years. It may gain because the Chinese Purchasing Manager's Index barely rose last month.

*Our usual suspects, BP, Royal Dutch Shell RDS-B, and Schlumberger Ltd, SLB, are up. Energy Fuels, UUUU, is up 11% after announcing that it will extend its rare earth removal from uranium to European ore, not just North American. UUUU is today's top performer.

Drug dealers

*Merck MRK will help make Johnson & Johnson's JNJ single jab COVID-19 vaccine which was just approved under a deal fostered by the White House using the Defense Production Act. The problem is that new mutations of the virus, notably the one from Manaus on the Amazon in Brazil, may only respond to new jabs. It also helps people who have allergies to older jabs.

*Swiss Novartis is up 1% because it goes ex-div tomorrow. It pays out 3.86% annually. NVS.

*Enlivex of Israel is up 4.03% on its Mount Sinai NY deal on checkpoint inhibitors reported yesterday. ENLV.

*Glaxo had bad news about generics but rose after presenting at the Cowen health care conference. GSK.

*Astra-Zeneca was maintained at outperform by SVB-Leerink analysts and its jab works on older adults according to Britain's National Health Service, despite rumors to the contrary. AZN.

*TEVA is down 2% after failing to win hearts and minds at a JP Morgan finance conference Tues.

Industry

*UK BAE Systems nabbed a USAF contract for the F-15 digital electromagnetic sustainability system from Boeing. BAESY is providing Passive Active Warning, whatever that may be. BAESY.

*CRH of Ireland is up 1.21% today. Cemex of Mexico is up 2.56% today. CX.

Finance

*SPDR Gold is up on the market drop. Kirkland Lake Gold, KL, a Canadian miner, gained 2.34%.

*Bank of Nova Scotia was upgraded to sector outperform by CIBC analysts at C$86. BNS.

*Banco Santander is back in the doghouse at $3.50. SAN.

*Swedish Investor AB is up 1.73% to $77, IVSBFSampo Oij of Finland is up 0.7%, SAXPY.

*CBOE lost 1.37% today after revealing that it aims to list and trade shares for the first US Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund.

*Mitsubishi, MSBHF, is up 0.7% while Sumitomo Mitsui is down 0.6%.

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