E Morgan Stanley's Whisper Number Showing Confidence

Morgan Stanley (MS) is expected to report earnings tomorrow before market open. The whisper number is $0.97, five cents ahead of the analysts' estimates and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community.

A year ago the company reported earnings of $0.84, four cents ahead of the whisper number. Morgan Stanley has a 79% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 27 of the 34 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

  •  Beat whisper: 27 qtrs
  •  Met whisper: 0 qtrs
  •  Missed whisper: 7 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:

The strongest price movement of -5.8% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +2.5% within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is 'opposite' (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in all of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings four cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 3.2% gain in one trading day. Last quarter the company reported earnings ten cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 3.2% loss in ten trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) an 'as expected' price reactor when the company reports earnings.

1 2
View single page >> |

Enter your expectations, view our free earnings calendar, and check out post earnings price moves here

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.