Despite my attempt to not write a blog today, I'm doing so because of the press of news from the rest of the world. But before we get into the details, here is a commentary on the risks and appeal of stimulus policies in the American past. Back when he first took office, some experts expected Pres. Trump might return the USA to the gold standard. Had he done so, the impact on the economy from covid-19 would have been even more horrific than it proved to be.

Photo by Zach Lucero on Unsplash

Luckily he did not follow through on suggestion he made during his campaign, both for his still rotten legacy and for the good of the USA. But it triggered my memory to think about the battle over bi-metallism. Does anyone else remember the great orator William Jennings Bryan delivering his "Cross of Gold" speech to try to stop the election of Republican William McKinley in 1986, and the refusal of the Democrat Grover Cleveland to call for again counting silver as part of the backing for US currency? This was a subject that had roiled the young USA for a century. Initially, the founding fathers under Alexander Hamilton used both silver and gold to stand behind the new country's money. But by 1873, with the coinage act, the silver part of the equation ended, although real silver coins remained in circulation. (They were finally demonetized and replaced with lesser metals and paper, but that is a different bit of history.)

"You shall not press upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold", thundered Democrat Bryan, three years after a financial panic, when stimulus was in short supply. Bimetallism was backed by farmers who wanted to export more of their production, by silver miners, and the left. Does anyone beside me remember the song: "I've seen my brothers working throughout this mighty land. And I prayed they'd get together and together take a stand. But the banks are made of marble, with a guard at every door. And the vaults are stuffed with silver, that the people sweated for." Among those the singer saw are a longshoreman whose foreman said "got no work for you no more"; "the auction hammer knocking down (a farmer's) home"; and a coal miner who is unable to pay for the coal to heat his own "shack".

The song was sung by Pete Seeger back in my youth, trying to tip American into recognizing the left side of our history. I suspect Seeger would be backing Putin over Navalny just as he backed Stalin over Solzenitzyn. And of course, as a liberal Republican by outlook I know that had silver been monetized the US would have not been as prosperous as it proved to be in the period until the end of World War I. But those suffering from what we now would call lack of stimulus, the "silverites" failed to win the election for Bryan. The spokesman for the common man, Bryan then went off the rails by trying to stop the teaching of evolution.

For the record, I am not a silverist but I am fearful of inflation. That is why I tipped Kirkland Lake Gold, KL, as one of my picks for 2021, which is public today after Nancy Zambell of Cabot Wealth posted her picks issue. You can also read Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs on the risk in the Barron's of Jan. 18. And learn from Rupal Bahnsell of Ariel Investments that the corporate tax has to go up and stocks are mispriced down because it is not recognized. Last year she picked China Mobile, a big loser.

And if you want to utterly terrify yourself read Scot James Anderson about the risk of US societal collapse as technology changes, "an existential race between the good and the bad." He is head of global equity at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh. Last year he beat the roundtable by recommending Tesla TSLA, up 696.4% in 2020.

Today's blog:

*China reported positive growth in 2020 at 2.3%, and 6.5% in Q4, the slowest annual rise in 40-odd years, and moreover the data was suspect because consumption did not rise, only production. It expects to see a rebound in 2021 but is not alone. China also offered delay in repayment of its debt to Kenya after the Paris Club (creditor countries) agreed to debt relief and a new loan of up to $2.3 bn, and a delay in repaying the existing arrears of $300 mn. By the way, the first fiat currency was adopted in the 14th century by Imperial China.

Tech

*Asea Brown Boveri, the Swiss-Swedish share we own through our Investor A/B fund from Sweden, fell 4.5% Friday, making it a cheapo play on data center tech for cutting carbon using technology like artificial intelligence, automation, writing software, electrification, etc. ABB has an ADR on the NYSE, ABB. It fell another 0.61% today in Europe. We own it via Investor a/b but I am tempted to take a punt directly if it continues down at the opening tomorrow. ABB os rated 3 for timeliness and technical, and 2 for safety by Value Line's Feb. issue received last week. If I buy ABB I will sell my stake in fund manager Franklin Resources, BEN, rated 4 and also now revealed to have done poorly with its global yield fund we own in 2020 thanks to excessive speculative short sales.

*A year ago I reacted negatively to the boost by Barron's for China Mobile CHL, a telco because it was already so overbought by simplistic American China lovers. I figured there were no new buyers out there. I did not anticipate the NYSE-White House attack on companies linke to the Beijing armed forces.

*A new Barron's with a roundtable arrived and the type size for the share prices last week hit a new low. I am quite a bit younger than its chief Rupert Murdoch but I cannot read poorly printed newspaper stock this small. It includes some worrier notes about the inflationary impact to come from Biden's debt relief package which I fear also. My reasons have little to do with Pete Seeger and much to do with my having lived through a couple of disastrous monetary periods, in Britain as a young bride; in Paris as a young mother; in the USA under Nixon. I also fear new taxes on my retirement account.

Does stimulus work? Jack Hough cites the case of Japan whose Nikkei 225 despite hefty aid packages is still lower than it was in 1989.

*Despite scorn from Abhimanju Sisodia over my weak support for Japanese game- and console-maker Nintendo, NTDOY, I expect the risk from larger players like Sony and Microsoft MSFT will hurt the upstart. It fell another 150 yen in Japanese trading today but is still near its 12 mo. high (up $3 bn in valuation in 2020) despite a plan to issue a new Super Mario Bros. game and gatherings of up to 35 players today. It is up here mainly on the basis of the Robinhood brokerage crowd.

*Nokia (NOK) was a stock winner last week, up 3.5%. The Finn gained from the perils of Chinese telcoms and the refusal of Swedish Ericsson (ERIC) to join the boycott. Losers included UUUU, Energy Fuels, and NIO which got ahead of themselves the week before.

Drugs

*My largest US holding Thermo Fisher Scientific, TMO, bought Belgium's Henogen S.A. from Franco-Belgian Grupo Novasep for Euros 725 mn cash. Henogen does viral vector manufacturing which can add to TMO's cell and gene vaccine arms outside the USA, in 2 Belgian . Novasep is selling its specialty areas and last week got Sartorius to buy its chematography equipment division.

*Barron's cited both our Swiss holdings, Novartis and Roche as having bought into gene-therapy startups, AveXis and Spark Therapeutics. It did not stress the fact that these moves occured 3 and 2 years ago. It also played down the complexity of gene-editing tech like how long it can be sustained without another round. NVS; RHHBY.

Funds

*Mexico Equity Income Fund MXE, forced to reset its management by a frivolous suit over alleged conflicts of interest because its team manages other funds (so do lots of closed-end fund managers) fell sharply on the addition of Phil Goldstein and allies to its board, down over 17%. Goldstein pretends to support shareholders but mostly he looks after himself.

*Another big loser according to Barron's this week was Herzfeld Caribbean Fund (CUBA). The Florida based manager, Tom Herzfeld, failed to react in time to the shifting appeal of hotels, cruise ships, and other local industries when covid-19 hit. His fund lost 16% in 2020.