The short-term uptrend continues. I have been watching closely for signs of a decline for a couple of weeks, but most of the indicators that I watch continue to show strength.
 

The market sputtered a bit during the week but on Friday it reasserted itself by gathering strength during the day and by having a strong close.

There was a big gap down below the five-day on Tuesday, but there was no downside follow-through.

So now the 2900-level is the focus on the SPX. In the very short-term, the market may be consolidating as it builds strength in order to power through this level.
 

Bottom line: 

I have taken partial profits and now I sit and wait. It is obvious that I took profits too early. It is a reminder to myself of why I think it's a good idea to take partial profits instead of selling completely.

The Long Term Outlook

The ECRI index stopped its decline at record lows, and now we wait to see if it can rally through the four-week average.
 

The VIX continues to decline which supports the bulls. Many people are reminding us on TV that the market can decline even when the VIX is declining, but I think this favors stock prices.

Here is a look back at the cumulative high/low breadth from the previous bear market. There were a couple false signals, but it was pretty clear that the trend was bottoming out in 2009.
 

Here is a look at the cumulative high/low breadth from the current bear market. It has a very different appearance, but my guess is that when this bear market is over, we'll also get a clear signal similar to 2009.
 

I like this tweet from Mark Minervini so much that I am going to leave it here for a while. It reminds me that a good market strategy can be very simple. The difficult aspect is personal discipline, not strategy.
 

Outlook Summary

I do my best trading when I am patient and disciplined. The economy is in recession as of March 28.

The short-term trend is up as of March 24.  

Contrarian Sentiment favors higher prices as of February 7. 

The medium-term trend for Treasury bonds is up as of Jan-25 (prices higher, yields lower)

Strategy During a Bull Market