My consistent message this year to investors has been not just the rebound from the March lows, not just the 'trading range' activity without catastrophic prospects as we moved higher from the early Spring (Inger Bottom as I named it presumptively), at the same time as corrections were internally due to occur for 'super-caps', or even a call last night for S&P to rebound, not accelerate lower, with a Tuesday turnaround.

That consistent message to keep in-mind (aside not excessively fighting the market or the Fed), was that S&P, even overextended Nasdaq, would rocket-up whenever we got 'serious' good news in the realm of a 'vaccine' or antiviral drug.

It was known around midday Tuesday, that Moderna (MRNA) was going to release Phase 2 results (first Phase was promising), as Dow Jones / WSJ reported, but really wasn't unexpected. But that wasn't the heart of our upside call, which was the banks out of the way, with Wells Fargo (WFC) cutting their dividend and JP Morgan (JPM) doing well... while it is important that loan-loss reserves were increased by the major banks, suggesting a continued expectation of more bankruptcies and defaults going forward. 

So we already had thought the market would turn and rebound, that traction would be sufficient to take the Dow most of the way back up, and with S&P lagging a bit, but nevertheless solid. Moderna data, released after the close today, showed 'good response of neutralizing antibodies in everyone' in the formal Phase 2 Trial.

I prep this because it was announced around 5 pm around the time Dr. Fauci was on CSPAN making comparisons to the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed 50 million globally (a few don't respect a lot of his work, but that narrative might help get people to wear masks, which are better than nothing but not perfect).. so hope to see that occurring. And I think he might want to 'clarify' his remark, since in the Q&A at Georgetown University today he too was optimistic about one or more vaccines coming 'this year'. That's of course concurrent with Moderna rocketing into the 80's (mentioned 80 price target at first long ago, though we don't follow it, Gilead Sciences (GILD) or most others that closely, believing several big and small vaccine makers will have product as time evolves).

Importantly though; that's an indication of possible national -even global- vaccine availability in months. The Phase 3 Trial will start .. late this month .. not 1 year or two years.. this month. So of course Moderna will zoom upwards presumably, see profit-taking, then stabilize. The S&P might do something similar.

Executive summary:

• The S&P rebound was extraordinary, while the Dow Industrials even more so, in a bit I'll touch on my thinking as to why the S&P resists prolonged declines, although I believe most members understand that.

• The split between President Trump and Dr. Fauci is ridiculous, trust levels are not high, and there is plenty of blame for mishandling this early-on, and by the way that relates to both political parties, today, aside politics and other issues like China, the President 'seems' to have bent towards wearing masks and just following CDC guidelines, which has probably been appropriate all-along.

• In January Peter Navarro was nearly alone in warning, I got most of my early January and February alerts (and market warnings) starting with a Bay Area friend just back from a business trip to Shanghai, then interestingly a nice couple from Shanghai who visited my Orlando Seminar (the last just on the cusp of WuFlu, as I had labeled the virus early-on.

• It was that reference during my presentation, that triggered their chiming-in with family reports, and I started digging, with a week warning all of you about PPE, ordering some myself, and curious why everyone in the US was in denial (not just a river in Egypt), including Trump, Fauci and Pelosi, so there was bipartisan avoidance of confronting the inconvenient reality in Washington, all around.

• As to the Moderna vaccine, there were moderate side effects in the middle-level dosage (inoculation), but it generally seems effective, hence why I lean toward the idea of Fauci's dramatic comparison getting better compliance on masks as a way to try buying time and relieving pressure on hospitals more rapidly again.

• Now, because the stock market was at a potential precipice (not 'cliff hanging' on edge as some suggest, although I understand that if looking 'just' as 'super-caps' or Nasdaq to the degree it's skewed by the handful of stocks).

• You may see a fairly robust thrust higher, but it does reestablish extended prices and will invite an ensuing retrenching (at minimum), but again not necessarily a total fiasco.

• However, there's a 'fine-line' to this 'high-wire act' of reopening the economy to a degree (with much of it closed anew), and that's broadening participation again. 

Psychological aspects of this year's ongoing 'trading range' are enhanced by the concerns expressed (such as Brainard's or by St. Louis Fed Bullard's comments in the post-close trade), as relate to continuing Fed support for the economy, and of course the Fed essentially is the backstop for this market.  

Both Fedheads expressed greater optimism for the U.S. to experience a more-rapid recovery, suggesting they're doing the Fed's official line, as that doesn't jive well with the CDC remarks of greater concern. I think stocks took that to heart a bit, coming a short time after our expected turnaround, but the Moderna expectation was fuel, too.  

Most of you know my approach to markets (right or wrong) is a blended one, not so much focused on the news itself, but the effect of that as markets don't function in a vacuum, but there are points (such as yesterday's sell-program-like reversal from an out-of-the-box Monday rally that almost never would extend without a shakeout).  

So it's not merely technical or fundamental, but also what mood is behind a move, as well as the 'structure' (includes leverage, panic and short-squeezes). Sometimes that contributes to the ability to suggest what isn't a common outlook.

In-sum: There are indeed so-called '2nd order economic aspects' of the COVID-19 second wave, as it sweeps through hotspot areas, mostly in the South or Southwest, and hence we recognize (I'm in Florida after all) the associated challenges again. It really has been the structure, with probably 3 out of for technicians and analysts on the bearish side of prospects all along, that helps sustain the trading range and fast snapbacks. Understanding that has contributed not only to being long, but avoiding the pitfalls of shorting even expected spikes, and of course 'not fighting the Fed'.