Of course at the moment all eyes are focused on Georgia; but none of it gives us what we need to extricate from this pandemic; which is better medicine. It's a tragedy and a shame, as the lack of proper preparedness, non-compliance of reasonable social guidelines to reduce the spread, encouraged by probably well-meaning but unrealistic politicians that aided-and-abetted cavalier crowds 'as if' they were immune to catching or carrying Covid, has made the lives of a throng of healthcare workers not only a living hell; but put them at risk as well.

Now what; that's a big question for people; for the FDA (they need to get off of their duffs and efficiently but rapidly approve 'better' tests and treatments); as well as for introspection for those (especially in media) that twisted truth while essentially letting people hear what they wanted to hear; not needed to hear.

Shattered bears shouldn't be surprised at a projected Tuesday turnaround; but they should recognize that worrisome aspects of this market remain.

However, despite today's move accelerating primarily because Saudi Arabia surprised OPEC with an extra 1 million bbl/daily output cut; a scale that's very significant and gives a hint about demand problems that persist, with an eye I think on the longer-term post-Covid rival, which will see recovered demand.

It is an effort to reduce supply to offset temporarily lean demand; so ultimately the solution for Oil demand is the same as most things: cure the entire world of Covid-19. I would not be surprised if Saudi's timing today related to the UK shutdown; with Europe and the UK far more dependent on Arabian crude than North America, which is self-sufficient in Oil & Gas.

Executive summary:

• Every metric regarding Covid is still skyrocketing; and that overshadows all other issues that of course we continue keeping an eye on;
• The Los Angeles 'order' not to resuscitate lost-pulse 'heart-attack' victims, and not even bring them to the hospital; gives a sense of the grave 'triage' situation;
• More than politics, or the lunacy of encouraging Capitol Hill confrontation on Wednesday, this situation with Covid will be nowhere near OWS stated goals in any way; so even with President-elect Biden's promises over the first 100-days; it won't fully take care of the problem; unfortunately;
• For the stock market this doesn't deny eventual recovery; it delays it and enhances prospects of a bit deeper correction once S&P snaps; ideally it is not until late this month or early next (yes after Inauguration); but point is there's minimal upside potential and building risk as previously noted;
• It is impossible to ascribe the inevitable S&P shakeout as a likely heavy prospective decline; given monetary policy and absent exogenous events;
• The issues we're being confronted with now, are not 'yet' exogenous with reasonable definition; but Covid itself 'if' the vaccines really don't work on the new variant (the plasma story may be a way of slowing breaking such news to the public, but that too isn't known, while some problem sure is)
• Hence it's back to what happens with Covid and keep in mind Pres. Biden is likely to propose huge spending to coincide with any lock-down that we hope is not necessary to be all-encompassing; so that could contribute as we saw months ago to bifurcated responses;
• Any big revelation opposing efficacy of vaccines would, however, not be well-received, especially given the (promotional?) efficacy assurances;
• For months we've believed there was time (and there has to be even now as how can it be otherwise) to get relief with 'better' 2nd generation drugs; including new vaccines (like Inovio) and 'better' testing (like Sorrento has and by the way indirectly affirms is being tested 'in' San Diego now);
• Tonight Dr. Gottlieb, former FDA Commissioner, 'hints' that the 'variant' is escaping 'prior immunity' (known as convalescent plasma) as likely it has escaped the ability of existing drugs; even the early antibody therapies;
• One advantage Sorrento's approach has if that they can design specific antibodies in a hurry; and likewise some say that Inovio could design a new DNA vaccine in a single day; hence where is the help to get it done;
• I need not belabor these issues: INO is an investment for probably later Phase 3 testing unless FDA gets off their tail and pushes; while SRNE is likely to pop any day we find approval (if so) on their Covi-Stix EUA;
• According to NBC News, 47 million Americans have or had Covid-19; so that's extraordinary; and more concerning again is that they 'think' after a recovery that they're immune;
• Apparently immunity either wanes faster, or is not protective, against the new variant(s); hence the 'recovered' may be just walking time-bombs, thinking they're somehow safer than the rest of us to venture around;
• These are the current situations; and I'll not delve into market or political factors tonight; since everyone knows what's going on in Atlanta and what will go on in Washington tomorrow;
• What some may not know is that the Air Force will 'possibly' be providing a 'combat air patrol' over Washington after a threat online purporting to be by Iran, to attack the US Capitol building on this day of joint convening;
• During proceedings, the presumption is that VP Pence won't pull any trick beyond his normal Constitutional duty (which is to officiate not legislate) tomorrow; but there are varying reports or speculations about all this;
• The NY Times reports Pence told Trump he has 'no Constitutional power' to block the Election Certification, which apparently Trump again asked;
• As to Tuesday's Georgia vote; the general belief is that President Trump's visit to the State yesterday had the inverse effect of motivating opposition; however we'll see how it goes (in Atlanta the polls were very speedy..so);
• Yes 'Control' of the Senate matters a lot; you all know that; and we'll just have to see how it turns out; the market would 'prefer' a Republican win; but it appears less likely to go that way but that may be media bias ... hard to say; reconciliation of the vote may take a day or two or be clear;
• Regardless the S&P remains vulnerable; and whether it's politics or Covid as the focus; these are issues that sooner or later don't sustain the kind of stability the S&P's shown; though again look at Oscillators; a bit neutral;
• By the way CNBC is reporting (but unconfirmed by other sources) that the mystery of Jack Ma's status with the CCP isn't clear; but he's not missing.
• Last night I reported the NYSE will 'not' de-list Chinese telecom stocks as previously intended; that is contributing to S&P futures being ahead last evening; now after media affirmed our report; some say that pressures by Washington 'on' the NYSE might cause another flip-flop (doing so is very unprofessional on the part of the Big Board and sets a bad precedent).
• Bottom line: how we coordinate and navigate Covid 'is' still key to the market ahead; although very short-term there's a political aspect too.

In sum: if I had to pick one 'fundamental' concern that's not discussed, it might be the speculation that all the so-far approved vaccines 'may' not work on a couple even-newer variants of the Coronavirus. I do not know if that's so; and at least most pharmas 'say' that they 'think' theirs does; but tests continue so it may very well be that the market is contemplating what we've talked about: it may be more like late this year or 2022 when we 'really' get through this for a large proportion of people and 2023 before cruising and so on 'truly' return.

I can sense the 'Covid-Panic' based on the half-dose discussions alone. So now we'll perhaps know what happened in Georgia by the opening. Maybe.