E Market Briefing For Thursday, Oct. 26

Lighting the path for the market's rotational topping process; we have for several weeks described markets as in an 'exhaustion phase', as rotational selling in one sector was offset temporarily by buying in other sectors, like of course old-line Industrial types (which typically are less volatile than techs). Today only one stock we follow really defied the decline.

As this evolved, equity markets are internally throttling back and have been for more than a month, regardless of the Indexes sporadically venturing into levels above any reasonable expectation. Meanwhile Oscillators and clearly the Advance/Decline Line(s) have decently reflected the 'real' market tone.

Now there has been a spate of wishful-thinking pundit-cheered perceptions, that really make little sense. One of those was the idea of compressed rises because buybacks reduced 'floating supply' of shares available to trade. For sure the same enthusiasts forgot the rotational aspect and how that works in both directions; similar to how leverage helps on the way up, but is a killer in the liquidation process.

Last week's one-day downside shakeout was a first recent preview of this kind of volatility, and as suspected, today was another. The direct-lending and high-yield markets are not priced for the risk that exists; and of course the markets are awaiting Thursday's ECB reflections as well. Meanwhile do note that the leader of Catalonia 'cancelled' plans (for now) to speak at the Senate in Madrid; perhaps fearful that the tough guys there would arrest him on the spot. There are pending votes (honored or not; and interfered with or not by the Federal Police) coming in Barcelona perhaps tomorrow. It matters to the Euro and the Dollar as to whether Catalonia actually flat-out revolts.

Meanwhile Apple has again been in the news; as constrained supply is well known for iPhone X, but the idea of Apple sacrificing 'quality for quantity' by reducing the accuracy of the Laser-Dot (Facial Recognition) components to get a higher 'yield' in production, circulated and was debunked by Apple.

Also there was just one shining upside stock Thursday, and technically had some meaning. LightPath Technology (LPTH) finally popped-over 3, ahead of the Annual Meeting (which I'll attend, hence may defer a couple intraday reports depending on the duration of the gathering). I watched the 'march upward' in terms of the spreads and size and it was persistent buyer(s) absorption of it seem every overhanging share on the books as it was relentless upside for about a half hour. Then they let it settle down a bit after 2 million shares.

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