Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 14

Crushing pressures remain averted for now; with most managers or hedgers still likely to be watching nearly-identical algorithms that would trigger heavier selling. In the case of Friday, we got the morning rebound looked for, and then a selling wave; with yet another rebound and then a bit of a late pre-weekend fade.  

At the same time a sort of unique 'fragility' persists in this market; which has never had such a narrow leadership group on which to rest the next move by the S&P. It's precisely why I described it for weeks as 'the Generals out in-front of the Troops'

  

At this point the troops (which barely budged forward) are hunkered down in those trenches merely 'waving' along market trends; while the Generals retreated notably, as they ponder when they can prod the troops into another advance or back-away and hope to avoid enemy assaults in the process. Meanwhile S&P notched to lower levels with a likely interim rebound, regardless how Monday starts (as I'll describe as well as note it possibly could be spearheaded or impacted by Apple on Tuesday).   

Executive Summary:

  • Technical evolution marches onward; from the 'worry wall' extended climb with a series of warnings for several weeks; followed by an S&P and NDX thrust above the rising tops (or 'bands') that we saw as an upside capitulation;
  • That blow-off was viewed primarily as a lightening-up selling spot in max-priced lunacy moves; especially as it was immediately in the wake of uninformed buying of split stocks (Apple & Tesla; with Tesla all along being the more vulnerable);
  • Those two were destined to subsequently drop after a low-quality buying spree (as experienced investors don't chase stock especially post-splits, even if they like a particular stock for down-the-road prospects);
  • Concurrently, many low-priced so-called value or growth plays only eroded when the 'super-caps' broke; as most had been correcting internally for a few months;
  • Apple will host a 2-hour presentation Tuesday; and I doubt they'd do 2 hours just to announce Apple Watch 6 or a new iPad Pro; hence speculation about iPhone;
  • However, there's 'one more thing' to watch for; and that's what preliminarily has been rumored named 'Apple One'; which would 'package' other services in one bundle, with the composition determined by baskets offered to customers;
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