Market Briefing For Monday, Jan. 11

As goes the first week goes January - and, as goes January goes the year; so suggests old Wall Street lore. This year, following a year like no other, has started out emulating the confusion and contradictions we all got accustomed to in politics; but not to the extent of 'crossing the Rubicon', as just happened.

It may well be a more or less undesirable move to Impeach again; or invoke the 25th if they'll find enough to sign-off on it; but at this point you have a lot of turmoil and uncertainty going forward; and fears of more 'situations' or confrontations instigated before Inauguration Day.

Hence, the market's 'tone' is essentially jittery; as those who 'get it' with an appreciation of both sides of the right/left perspective, know the 'blame-game' has to stop.

And yes, there may be a next time given the threats that are circulating. That's likely part of why Apple pulled the plug on Parler late Saturday. And Amazon web services (host for Parler) also decided to stop hosting them (I'm unsure if that's appropriate without notice to their customer; but let them worry about it). 

It should be, but isn't entirely, a time for reconciliations on all fronts. Of course politically first; and in the effort to combat Covid; both of which are skirmishes that seemingly never end, and do affect investment psychology.

Still, the Nation navigates these next few days carefully. As we explored much this week, a) markets shuffle around reality change is nearby, not merely probable; b) the Nation indeed survived insurrection; c) Congress behind the scenes realizes this was an effort to cripple one of three co-equal branches of Government (an Executive attack against the Legislative branch), and now there's pressure, even if it's for a few days, to d) sort of like a CEO who under-performs; even if they did fine a couple years back, but falter and flail, a Board of Directors can simply say: 'you're fired'.

I was surprised Biden doesn't want to see anyone who spoke at the early rally that day prosecuted; including President Trump or Donald Jr. Benevolence I'll guess; and 'mercy'. But although there's little doubt those 'guys' incited crowd action (actually proposing to march to the Capitol with the masses), I realize it is Biden's version of being General Patton; arriving in Berlin and comforting a nervous teeming city; rather than extending the hostilities. Worth pondering.

Executive summary:

  • Record high S&P daily Closes despite ongoing (but sort of eased) stress, as though tensions persist; political questions are generally addressed;
  • The market overall took an intraday 'hit' when a West Virginia Senator got quoted by the Washington Post as saying he opposed the $2000 payment stimulus checks; which is odd given that's an impoverished state (later he said he was misinterpreted); but the sensitivity to this is abundantly clear;
  • Pelosi after the Close said she 'would' accept 'Articles of Impeachment' as regards Donald J. Trump; and it's a tight timeline intended to make a point if President Trump does not resign over the weekend;
  • I doubt it matters much to the stock market; but Impeachment (if legal for that matter) would raise levels of tension among those who 'do not' grasp the American legal system;
  • Covid remains a colossus to deal with; and obviously largely mishandled up to now; and frankly we should have better tests and treatments; and a next-generation vaccine should be the focus; rather than near-term panic;
  • Speaking of, there is basically no containment of Covid in the USA or UK; and you even have people who can leaving blue states for red states with a desire (especially the irresponsible ones) to be where it's 'more open';
  • Of course such migration contributes to 'spread' and that's also what now occurs as the demonstrators in Washington go home;
  • It was a huge super-spreader event and now good people trying to help it seems will be 'at risk' because of those who defied SOCUS and the USA; while (probably sincerely) believing that were doing so to defend the US, not attack its basic core;
  • And incidentally we're not going to go socialist; if anything this whole deal should pull politicians more to the Center; even if the fringes persist;
  • Average working people connected with Donald Trump as we pointedly at the time noted Union endorsements 4 years ago; we were coming from a period of decades of deconstruction of the Nation; as I often talked about; so I certainly see the 'appeal' Trump had;
  • Basically now realize something changed with Trump; before Covid but is entirely feasible that some of his behavior is a lingering after-effect; while it is not sorted-out with the public yet; we need to get that done rapidly;
  • We also need to 'vaccinate rapidly'; some of the target goals are really not feasible if you seek injections from people knowing what they're doing;
  • That's the point: they squandered time; Government didn't focus enough on Covid; and now the usual testing and tracing is irrelevant; not to note.. I think it's important.. that most current rapid tests give false negatives if it is the mutant variant of the virus (stay tuned for news on that front);
  • Speaking of I noticed today Sorrento has a new job opening overseeing a Covi-Stix 'App' (the antigen test with high claimed specificity);
  • That doesn't mean the App isn't developed; it just affirms that the at-home test somehow is tied to an App, and suggests they expect large orders as soon as the EUA from the FDA (presumably) is forthcoming.. any day(?);
  • Oh: Celularity, about 25% owned by Sorrento, entered into a definitive merger agreement with GX Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: "GXGX"); upon closing, shares of the combined company will be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "CELU"; and we'll be watching it (SRNE will own about 18% fully diluted after the 'deal', and should add value to its shares); the deal (presuming it closes) should be about 3-6 months from now;
  • Bottom line: how we coordinate and navigate Covid 'is' still key to the market ahead; especially as short-term political aspects ebb (still fluid);

(Now past OPEC 'stick straw in ground' extraction costs. Higher over time.)

In sum: whether the President stays a few more days or not isn't clear; although it doesn't seem to be a market factor. Senate Republicans say there is no time to bring any of the strongest moves against Trump; but we'll see.

At the same time we'll hear more about how strong certain tech earnings are, due to lower overhead during the pandemic; but be careful; it still leads to a bit of a probable shakeout in February at least as far as my technical work.

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