Aside the angina and disruptive political scene, which includes deferred help so many Americans need to 'bridge' this latest pandemic surge to recovery, it turned into a bit of an interesting Thursday. So I expand the Daily Briefing more than expected; especially because of new information suggesting a big change for vaccines. 

We got a very important outline of an EU / UK post-Brexit trading deal; we did not get downside follow-through on Trump's veto of the Defense Bill; and we'd be viewing as a tossup what happens with the 'Relief Package'. Whether right or wrong, the market seems to 'assume' (always beware of that word) that it's all politics and they 'must' come to an accord for the people.

Perhaps; and if it is to be so, then the S&P can continuing hanging-in toward year-end and we'll look for investors to try holding the super-caps so as to at least push gains into a new tax year; which (if Republicans hold the Senate in the wake of Trump perhaps making that more difficult with the Georgia run-off based on his 'relief' disruption yesterday); though few disagree about the $2k idea if it had been brought-forth sooner during the debating whereas now it's at least the appearance of political posturing and unrealistic. The sad part has nothing to do with Trump, but how the survival of poorer people is politicized.

Meanwhile, what do I need to point out with individual stocks? 

There is Sorrento, which submitted the EUA for Covi-stix; and based on the FDA's history in this crisis, it's not impossible they approve it very quickly. So the slightly delayed but often-seen post-news consolidation really would be seen by bulls on the stock as a buying opportunity anticipate a 'zoom' on a real approval, rather than just the submission. Then everyone will question if they have the production capacity; so perhaps that was the reason for delay.

If they do, the shares could theoretically double or more without anything else, and of course more if something else is approved as this evolves. Institutional analyst had a 20-30 target on SRNE before these Covid 'solutions'; so hard to say that's justified or too conservative should they succeed in their efforts.

Lastly the more significant new change. For months we've included Inovio as a pharmaceutical play within the 'sprinkled basket' of Covid prospects. Mostly the big pharmas have had their runs and are consolidating. Might even drop if what Inovia has proves-out more than what we have already speculated on. It is just the last couple weeks that I emphasized a preference for Sorrento and Inovio as remaining (of the original whole bunch) Covid plays.

I had mentioned the initial Trial with INO-4800 (a DNA vaccine; nothing like all the solutions at Sorrento; but conceivably in complementary use depending). So this morning The Lancet (a respected peer review British Medical Journal) did a very favorable write-up on Inovio based on previous data submissions.

I found it interesting that they picked Christmas Eve to release this; as it was a very impressive 100% helpful in the 40 patients; with minor reactions for the most part. What's unclear if whether its 60-70% range of efficacy is limiting or not even the final numbers from larger groups. Also the nature of the vaccine might infer far longer DURATION of effectiveness in repelling Covid than all of the others being contemplated so far.

And one final point: 'if' this is approved (long delayed because of the unique delivery mechanism and changing of component manufacturers for that which has been accomplished) ... it might turn out to be the 'standard bearer' global vaccine for one simple reason: it does not require deep refrigeration and has a shelf-life at 'room temperature' (not 100 degrees of course) or basic fridge for a year, according to the write-up. That's a huge deal. We won't know for a bit if the efficacy range will be improved; but that it showed favorable response in all subjects is important.

So as I mentioned for two weeks we wanted the shares to ideally break 10 to give a lower-risk entry. This stock was in the 30's at mid-summer. Inovio does not have the broad 'portfolio of solutions' like Sorrento has; but Inovio might just be the candidate for vaccine use for 'years' not merely the initial phase as it is not complicated by the difficult shipping and storage issues as the others.

So, as for vaccines, if INO-4800 becomes a standard for covid-19 vaccination about the middle of 2021, that implies Pfizer and Moderna only have about 6 months to push as many of their 1st Generation vaccines as possible (can't yet speak about AstraZeneca etc.). Once INO-4800 is approved and people learn it does not have any serious side effects and additionally is providing a long-lasting (year + is the inference) protection, it's easier to predict which of the various virus vaccines will become the preferred one.

In the meantime, not to sound cruel, but let's watch closely to see side effects over time, especially for politicians and not just medical establishment figures to get their second injections, and see if they are content with the side effects.

Same as with Sorrento; not the first-out-of-the-gate; but perhaps ultimately best-in-class testing or treatments (until something else; room for many with a pandemic that will require testing, vaccines and treatments for years ahead). Both vaccines and 'antibody therapeutics', and perhaps T-Cell treatments too will become front-line and fall-back approaches to caring for patients as (sadly for sure) Covid-19 is going to be around for a long time. For-instance few tend to be aware that the 'Spanish Flu' of 2018 is still being vaccinated against for all of us (except those who defy flu shots) to this day: Influenza 'A' is just that.

Price targets are impossible to know; support prices are presumed to be now; essentially current levels; for both Sorrento and Inovio. I envision SRNE well into double digits within 2-3 months; but that requires FDA approvals as noted of course. For Inovio it broke into the high 9's yesterday; rallied to 11 on the Lancet revelation; and then settle back to near 10.25; we think INO is a buy here if it doesn't run higher rapidly; or on pullbacks. Neither INO or SRNE are for the faint-of-heart; as we have said all along with regard to Covid plays.

Wow.. that's enough.. no lump of coal for Christmas and let's see if sparkling diamonds emerge from some of these gems (optimistically) going forward.  This became a full report (oh well; hope you find time to read it over the weekend).

According to The New York Times, in an interview about why he kept nudging up the numbers for 'herd immunity' in the United States, Dr. Fauci responded this way: "We need to have some humility here". Fauci then said dryly: "We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent." He expanded and then said 'because doing so might discourage Americans'.

Well so guess what; you'll never get 90% compliance as a number of people (rightly or wrongly) are convinced that 'red-blooded Americans' won't stand for more shutdowns; or even to be vaccinated. So let's assume 70% maximum. If that's the case those 'deniers' of reality will either be lucky and stay healthy or they will get sick and need fallback treatments like antibody therapeutics.

It's ludicrous to think there would be only one approach to treating this; which is why an over-emphasis on funding vaccines alone early-on was naive as we have discussed. You don't just have one broad-spectrum antibiotic either; you have many. And if one doesn't do well on a patient, you go to another. Same here although of course this is viral not bacterial; unless it becomes ARDS. I think you'll hear a lot on this front in the days and weeks just ahead.

Enjoy your holiday weekend and if possible avoid crowds.