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American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on April 25 before the market open.

American Airlines has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 119%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised downward to 21.74% in the past 60 days.

Given this backdrop, let’s see how things have shaped up for AAL this earnings season.

We expect upbeat air travel demand, particularly on the domestic front, to have boosted American Airlines’ top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Passenger revenues, which account for the bulk of the top line, are likely to have been high, strengthening total revenues. Per our model, passenger revenues in the first quarter of 2024 are likely to have increased by 2.5% from the first-quarter 2023 actuals.

AAL’s management expects the fuel cost per gallon of $2.8-$2.9 for the first quarter of 2024 (the earlier projection was at $2.65-$2.85). AAL projects the March-end quarter's loss per share (excluding net special items) to be in the lower end of the 15-35 cent range mentioned previously.

First-quarter available seat miles are expected to increase by 6.5-8.5%. Total revenue per available seat mile is expected to increase by 3.5-5.5% in the first quarter of 2024 from the first-quarter 2023 actuals.
 

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for American Airlines this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +6.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
 

American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote
 

Highlights of Q4

American Airlines’ fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of 29 cents per share (excluding 26 cents from non-recurring items) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 6 cents. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported earnings of $1.17 per share. Operating revenues of $13.06 billion decreased 1% year over year. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.02 billion.

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