Iomab-B Makes Actinium Pharma A Rare And Exciting Investment Opportunity


In February 2017, Actinium hired Steven Price in the position of Vice President, Clinical and Commercial Strategy. Steve will initially focus on pre-commercial efforts including strategic planning and product messaging for Iomab-B. Most recently, Steve was at Merck as Global Disease Lead, Hematology where he focused on Keytruda®, an anti-PD-1 immuno-oncology antibody. Steven's experience includes strategic planning and sales positions at ImClone, Enzon, and Immunex Corp.

Beyond continuing to enroll patients in SIERRA, it is important that management continues to increase awareness for the drug in the transplant and hematologist communities. This can be accomplished by continuing to publish data from previous clinical trials and presenting new pharmacoeconomic data that will facilitate reimbursement with Medicare and private payors once the drug is approved.

Equally crucial is ensuring manufacturing and delivery of product during the clinical trial to help Actinium build and establish relationships with hospitals that might use Iomab-B once approved. These are large medical centers that not only treat leukemia patients but also do allogeneic bone marrow transplants and have nuclear medicine capability. Importantly, because these sites are experienced with radiopharma and Iomab-B is prepared on site, I'm not expecting Actinium to be hampered by the nightmare procedures that plagues Bexxar® and Zevlin® over a decade ago.

A Large Market Opportunity

The U.S. FDA and EU EMA have already granted Actinium Orphan Drug designation to Iomab-B. The market opportunity with Iomab-B is significant. According to the American Cancer Society, there will be an estimated 21,380 new cases of AML in the U.S. in 2017. Another 27,500 new cases arise in Europe each year. The U.S. NCI estimated 73% of newly diagnosed AML patients are over the age of 55 and there are no currently approved treatment options for these elderly patients with relapsed or refractory disease. It's an estimated patient population of approximately 15,000 individuals, the majority of who cannot tolerate standard conditioning regimens that allow them to progress to a BMT.

By offering a more effective and more tolerable solution to these elderly relapsed or refractory AML patients, Actinium is sitting on a sizable market opportunity with Iomab-B. Standard conditioning regimens cost between $50,000 and $200,000. They can also take as long as 28 to 42 days. At $75,000 for a course of treatment (my guess) over only 12 days for Iomab-B, this is a $1.15 billion peak market opportunity. And, given that Actinium will target only a few dozen BMT centers with a focused sales force, it's an opportunity the company can easily tackle alone. That puts forth the potential for a high margin, high profitability commercial business once Iomab-B is approved in 2020.

I think this makes Actinium tremendously undervalued. For example, with 30% penetration, Iomab-B is a $350 million product. I've conducted two separate valuation approaches to valuing Iomab-B and both peg the fair value of the product around $300 million. That's 4x the current value of the company today and we still have yet to incorporate Actimab-A (Phase 2 for AML) and Actimab-M (Phase 1 for MM).
 

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Disclaimer: BioNap is NOT an Investment Advisor. We are an investor intelligence and strategic advisory firm. Most of the companies mentioned on this blog are party to a services ...

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