We are 3 weeks into the decline phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began in March.

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The magnitude of the previous decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish intermediate-term trend and favors additional losses.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower this week, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 3 weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 27. The magnitude of the last decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional weakness. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through October 9.

• Last ITCL: March 27, 2019
• Cycle Duration: 26 weeks
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next ITCL Window: Now through October 9.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

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Intermediate-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the recent long-term high at 3,510 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A weekly close below current levels would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,169.

Both scenarios are equally likely.