Inflation Is Coming But Will It Be Transitory?


The stock market is having the greatest factor rotations since the tech bubble burst. That’s a bad sign for growth stocks despite their victory on Tuesday. Small business confidence increased slightly. The rise in prices in the NFIB report implies core PCE and core CPI inflation will spike this spring and summer. Policymakers believe it is transitory. If rents actually increase as much as the consumer survey indicates, we will see above 3% core CPI inflation. The comps are going to get easier starting in March. Job postings have more than fully recovered. The labor market probably won’t have a need for more stimulus by July, but helping parents is always welcomed news.


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