Index Update

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In the midst of lifetime highs, let’s take a stroll through some major cash index markets. The Nasdaq Composite is near lifetime highs but didn’t quite make it there. On Friday, tech stocks were strong but less than half as strong as the small caps. The damage to the trendline is formidable, and if there’s going to be any weakness next week, it’s much more likely from tech stocks than, let’s say, the industrials.
 


Speaking of which, the Dow 30 cut above its inverted H&S continuation pattern. I would point out that the left 60% of the chart has a similar, yet much larger, setup, and that produced sizable gains.
 


The narrower Nasdaq 100 has similar markings to the $COMPQ: a failure to achieve a new high and a horribly damaged uptrend. The blast-off on Friday merely put prices back to where they had been a couple of days prior.
 


The most substantial strength has been from small caps, which are just a few percentage points away from their lifetime high. Only a few months ago, this would have seemed an almost impossible proposition.
 


This week is all about one thing: Nvidia (NVDA). They report after the close on Wednesday which will either drive the semiconductor index to new lifetime highs (finally besting the record of July 2024) or send the entire market crumbling.
 


Friday undid five days of damage on the S&P 500. At the moment, there’s absolutely nothing bearish about this chart. Not even a little bit.
 


With all this going on, volatility is about to go to Jeffrey Epstein levels.
 


Lastly, the topping pattern on the oil & gas index looks just about kaput. This has been far too robust to support the prospect of a drop in prices away from this pattern. It seems to have found a happy home at roughly the present price level.
 

 


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