It came on slow, first a general loss of appetite, then an overwhelming feeling of tiredness. However, the real effects became apparent going into the night. A splitting headache, uncontrollable shaking, severe muscle pain, in fact, pain just about everywhere, and a very unsettling feeling of my skin burning. It seems that I now have some idea of what it feels like to have COVID-19. Fortunately, these symptoms lasted through one night, and largely cleared up by morning. Yes, this was my COVID-19 vaccine experience, and while it was quite unpleasant, I do not regret getting the shot.

I received the first dose of the AstraZeneca (AZN) vaccine almost three weeks ago now. In case you're wondering why AstraZeneca, it's because I'm in Europe right now, and it's the only shot available in the country I'm in. Now, this article is not meant to pick on AZN. In fact, despite the controversy surrounding AstraZeneca I'm bullish on the company and we are long the stock. Moreover, I remain bullish on the broader COVID-19 vaccine space, and this article will discuss various attractive investments in the COVID-19 vaccine industry.

Why We Remain Bullish

Roughly 500 million people have been vaccinated against COVID-19 globally thus far. Yet, there are still so many unknowns. For instance, what percentage of the global population will ultimately get the shot? How long will "immunity" last for? What will happen next year, and the year after, and after?

Despite some clear benefits for getting the COVID-19 shot, many people seem to be against the idea. Some believe vaccines are unsafe, some worry about serious side effects, others believe they may get COVID-19 from the vaccine itself, and so on. The bottom line is that many people have concerns and it's very likely that a substantial part of the global population will likely opt out of the vaccination process. While this is an estimate, I suspect that around 30% of the global populous will remain unvaccinated for years.

As far as immunity is concerned, we know that many people have suffered repeat infections. In fact, much of the data suggests that the antibody immune response dissipates after just several months of initial infection, leaving people open to reinfection relatively quickly. The double shot vaccine likely provides a longer period of protection, but this is plausibly only around a year or so.

Given that a relatively large portion of the global population will likely decline getting the COVID-19 vaccine, coupled with the possibility that vaccine protection will last around a year or so, COVID-19 will likely become an endemic disease, much like the flu. Therefore, we can expect the vaccine business to boom for years going forward, in my view.

Top COVID-19 Vaccine Stocks

AstraZeneca - Despite the unpleasant side effects, and the controversy surrounding its vaccine, AstraZeneca remains one of the top vaccine suppliers to the global coronavirus crisis. Moreover, the company is becoming increasingly more profitable. AZ earned $2.81 in EPS last year, this year the company is expected to deliver $3.81, and next year, $4.85. This is roughly 30% YoY EPS growth, and while EPS growth is expected to level out after 2022, we're looking at one very cheap stock.

Source: StockCharts.com

Right now, AZ is trading at just about 10.5 times next year's consensus EPS estimates and delivers a dividend of about 3%. This is cheap, and I suspect we can get some notable multiple expansion this year as well as in 2022. I believe that 15 times earnings is a more reasonable valuation for AstraZeneca, and at 15X 2022's EPS expectations, AZN is worth $72.75 per share, roughly 43% higher than where the stock is today.

Moderna (MRNA) - This is my favorite COVID-19 vaccine name. Moderna has the best COVID-19 vaccine on the market, in my view. It's also the most expensive, and likely the most profitable one. Whereas AZN essentially receives $5 or fewer per a dose, Moderna is expected to charge $32-37. At the same time J&J (JNJ) charges about $10 per shot, and Pfizer (PFE) is selling its doses for around $15-20. Also, it's important to note that while J&J's is a one-shot vaccine, Moderna's is a two or a three-shot process. Thus, it could cost around $100 to be vaccinated by Moderna's vaccine vs. just around $10 from J&J, or AstraZeneca. Furthermore, Moderna's shot is highly effective, more so than J&J's and AZ's shots at preventing symptomatic infections. Also, it's much more practical than Pfizer's/BioNTech's (BNTX) mRNA vaccine, as it does not need to be stored at extremely low temperatures. Therefore, this is very likely the best all-around vaccine, and it's likely going to generate a great deal of revenues and profits for Moderna going forward.

Now, Moderna is expected to deliver about $22.60 in EPS this year. However, we cannot value the firm on its earrings for this year alone as EPS will likely fluctuate going forward. Moderna is a leader in mRNA technology, and it should continue to make breakthrough vaccines and medicines going forward. Therefore, the company is very likely going to be quite successful long term. In fact, analysts are expecting a boom in earnings, moving up to around $57 in 2030. Thus, the stock could be rangebound in the near term, but it's likely going much higher in the intermediate and longer term. Based on the company's EPS estimate trends, I suspect shares could be trading at about $500 in two to three years, roughly 200% upside from current levels.

Pfizer - Pfizer, with its partner BioNTech, has a good vaccine. Its downside is that it needs to be stored at extremely low temperatures. Many underdeveloped nations lack the infrastructure required to carry out the vaccination process. Therefore, other more practical vaccines will likely take market share in many regions. Also, the company is a huge drug maker with limited growth potential going forward. The good news is that the stock is relatively cheap and offers a strong 4% dividend.

At roughly 12 times this year's consensus EPS estimates Pfizer is an inexpensive name that could offer some multiple expansion going forward, but upside here is likely limited due to the company's massive size and lack of significant growth prospects. Nevertheless, shares could advance moderately to roughly $45-50 or so over the next year. Vaccine optimism coupled with potential multiple expansion may result in stock gains of around 20-30% over the next 12 months.

J&J - Johnson & Johnson may not have the "best vaccine" on the market, but it's a very stable and profitable company. Also, despite the temporary setbacks on the vaccine front, JNJ is still one of the first firms to bring a viable vaccine to market, the first "one-shot" vaccine, and to be fair, the concerns surrounding the company's vaccine are very similar to those faced by AstraZeneca. In my view, the risks associated with AZ's vaccine as well as with J&J's are heavily outweighed by the benefits. Therefore, these vaccines should continue to be implemented around the globe to save countless lives from the coronavirus pandemic.

At its core, J&J is a very interesting value/growth play. The company is growing EPS by around 10% per year and is expected to deliver around $10.34 in EPS next year. Now, this puts the company's forward P/E ratio at around 15. While this is not as cheap as some other names on our list J&J should continue to show steady growth in EPS along with its dividend. This should result in some multiple expansions along with share price growth in future years. In general, I suspect J&J could be trading closer to $200 in 12 to 18 months, representing roughly 25% upside from here.

Another important element to consider when looking at the following vaccine providers is that revenue and earnings projections may be relatively muted right now. This is likely due to a reluctance to price in the coronavirus as an endemic disease, that may need large portions of the global population to get vaccinated annually. Therefore, the underlying names could ultimately produce higher revenues and more profits in the COVID-19 vaccine area of their businesses than is currently priced in by analysts' projections.

The Takeaway

All COVID-19 vaccines have their pluses and minuses, and there's no such thing as a perfectly safe vaccine or a perfectly safe medicine for that matter. Any vaccine will pose a danger to someone, someone who may have an allergic reaction or may suffer a serious complication. Unfortunately, some people developed deadly clots from some vaccines, but when put into context the percentage of people developing these serious complications, is minute. I won't lie, I was nervous about getting the AstraZeneca shot, but everything went relatively well (aside from the unpleasant side effects). Now I feel much safer about going out as well as living my life in general. More importantly, I suspect that my odds for severe COVID-19 illness have been reduced substantially, and will be further reduced, essentially down to zero after my second shot.

Vaccine Pros and Cons

• AstraZeneca - Pros: Very effective in preventing severe and moderate disease, cheap, easy to store, highly accessible. Cons: Not as effective against preventing mild symptomatic illness as mRNA vaccines, reportedly lead to blood clots in extremely rare cases.
• J&J - Pros: One-shot vaccine, very effective in preventing severe and moderate disease, easy to store, relatively inexpensive. Cons: Not as effective against preventing mild symptomatic illness as mRNA vaccines, reportedly lead to blood clots in extremely rare cases.
• The pros and cons are very similar here, as these two vaccines are based on the similar technology. Naturally, the two mRNA vaccines also are similar.
• Pfizer/BioNTech - Pros: Very effective in preventing all forms of the disease. Cons: Needs to be stored at extremely low sub-zero temperatures, moderately more expensive than non-mRNA vaccines.
• Moderna: Pros - Very effective in preventing all forms of the disease. Cons: Needs to be stored at low temperatures, most expensive vaccine on the market right now.

Just to note, there are other COVID-19 vaccines out there, like Russia's Sputnik V, and China's Sinovac, but these are not likely to take notable market share from Western vaccine makers. The U.S., the EU, and other nations under Western influence will very likely primarily rely on Western-made vaccines. Having said that, a lot more are coming to market. Therefore, we should not simply rely on vaccines when purchasing stocks discussed in the piece.

Pfizer is cheap and is going through multiple expansions now, Moderna will very likely develop more lucrative mRNA-based vaccines and medicines, AstraZeneca is relatively cheap and should see its multiple expand going forward, and J&J is a very attractive value/growth stock. Also, COVID-19 vaccine revenues and profits may be lowballed right now. Ultimately, the underlying companies have very strong business prospects independent of their COVID operations, but could very well produce higher revenues and profits due to their COVID-19 vaccine exposure. Therefore, higher prices are likely going forward.