Hot Restaurant Stocks For 2014

Bloomin' Brands (Nasdaq:BLMN), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), and Del Frisco's Restaurant Group (NASDAQ: DFRG) were three top picks by more than one broker ahead of the ICR Exchange annual meeting  last month. Last year's top pick of Red Robin Gourmet Burger soared over 100% .

These three picks were the winners of the hotly contested ICR Best Performing Restaurant Stock Pick competition, now in its fifth year. According to Tom Ryan, CEO of ICR," Last year's participants made great selections. An investor who purchased the entire recommended list would have generated a 52 per cent annual return, which compares favorably to the S&P 500 gain of 30 per cent."

Bloomin' Ready to Bust Out

Analysts from Barclays and Jefferies both named Bloomin' Brands as their top restaurant pick for 2014. Jefferies Managing Director Andy Barish said,"Bloomin’ has the internal same store sales drivers and margin improvement/productivity initiatives to offset a tough casual dining environment and outperform its peers."

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays thinks the mature Outback Steakhouse concept as well as growth from  Bonefish Grill, Carrabba's and Outback International make for a compelling pick with EPS growth in the high teens. He also expects significant cost savings in 2014.

Bernstein didn't even mention its fine dining concepts Fleming's Steakhouse and Roy's, a fusion themed tablecloth restaurant. All told the company owns and operates 1,275 restaurants in the US and 19 countries, 203 franchised or in a joint venture. Speaking of those cost savings the company has saved $271 million from 2008-2012.

Bloomin’ Brands started trading publicly in 2012. Growth strategies include offering lunch at its Outback and Carrabba's locations,  completing the rollout this year . Bloomin' also remodeled 130 Outback and Carrabba's and is relocating almost 100 Outbacks from "B" and "C" locations to "A" locations with a 40% lift in traffic almost immediately for those already moved.

As for the international expansion that Bernstein mentioned the company is well on its way with Brazil seeing 50 openings in 2013 and that number is expected to double over 5 years. China and Mexico are viewed as two other high growth markets.

Del Frisco's fine dining makes for a fine stock

Del Frisco's, owner of a three concept full service chain: Sullivan's Steakhouse (fine dining average guest check of $59), Del Frisco's Grille (casual steaks average guest check $50), and Del Frisco's (fine dining average guest check $104) presented at the 16th Annual ICR Xchange its steakhouse concept as highly differentiated from traditional steakhouses  being brighter with a bolder menu and more contemporary design than the dark wood paneled steakhouse of old.

Stephens' analyst Will Slabaugh  predicts almost 50% upside for Del Frisco's calling it an under the radar unit growth story.  Managing director at Stifel, Paul Westra, is even more bullish with a $32 price target and the conviction it is the cheapest growth stock in the industry with a superior operating team and "the highest returns on capital within the full service restaurant sector."

Westra has a point with the operating team as nearly all executive management has had extensive steakhouse and fine dining experience with CEO Mark Mednansky coming from Texas Land & Cattle Steakhouse and Lone Star Steakhouse. Other executives have come from Ruth's Chris , Morton's, the Capital Grille, the Four Season, and Houston's, all quality dining operations.

Del Frisco's is a much smaller operation than rival Bloomin'. Del Frisco's has only 40 restaurants in 20 states but is growing at a higher percentage than most of its fine/casual dining peers, unit growth of 17.6%. Westra expects 100 locations in the future. Typically, the company funds new units from operating cash flow.

The company has an admirable 19.5% revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and a 19.9% EBITDA CAGR. Several initiatives presented at the ICR XChange to keep that CAGR high are expansion of private dining facilities, selective remodeling, growing their  Dedicated Dining loyalty program, and expanding beverage as a per cent of check from an already high 33-37%.

The company has no debt and announced a $10 million share buyback in October. CFO Tom Pennison aims for a target of 18-20% EPS growth. If all this weren't enough Del Frisco's presented an eye opening chart of its operating margin of 10.5% compared to a host of full service competitors, including much larger ones like Brinker, Darden, and Buffalo Wild Wings.

A popular java destination

Starbucks is again an ICR XChange hot pick this year. Since last year's XChange  when it was trading around $55 it moved above $80 and has pulled back slightly.  Analysts Gregory Badishkanian from Citi Research and Mark Kalinowski from Janney Capital Research think it has continued upside.  Badishkanian thinks its US stores will continue to benefit from a higher end consumer while International continues to grow. He also likes recent acquisitions.

Kalinowski was more specific," Our BUY rating is driven by an expectation of continued solid US same store sales trends, potentially lower year-over-year coffee costs through fiscal 2017, and a large long term worldwide single-cup opportunity. Our fair value estimate is $90."

Starbucks' acquisitions of Teavana, La Boulange bakery products, and Evolution Fresh juices have made the chain a place even coffee-haters can enjoy. However, 20,000 locations sell an estimated 5 billion cups of coffee based on fiscal 2012 net revenue of $13.3 billion, with 2013 record revenues of $14.9 billion that number is likely much higher.

Despite CEO Howard Schutlz’ Janauary memo on digital trends in retail, fully 88% of Starbucks' sales come from bricks and mortar. Digital payments and gift card trends are working well for the company and of course, nothing beats that Starbucks aroma. Starbucks also offers a yield of 1.40% and its forward earnings multiple is 22.42.

So many choices

In the often-challenged restaurant sector, choosing from a menu of upside choices is a nice change of pace. Some tasty due diligence might even be required. Whether you want the stalwart growth of Starbucks under Howard Schultz, the international ambitions of Bloomin' Brands, or the growth of tiny Del Frisco's one of these is sure to please your palate and portfolio.

 

 

 

 

Annalisa Kraft has no position in these companies.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.