Hopes For A Peace Accord

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My zip code is going to face hardships because of sanctions against Russia and China. While I live and work in an apartment house, the neighborhood's cachet is linked to the single-family houses in the area. Many are bolt-holes for Russian and Chinese fat cats who are now being investigated over their US properties in the Big Apple. Moreover, the city is now building a highway over the East River which will cut the river view and peace and quiet of the nearest townhouses to my place. In my building, those overlooking the river have high-up balconies which will remain quiet. 

My son the financial analyst thinks we will also lose some appeal and suggests that buying stocks will help offset the risk.

Today hopes for a peace accord between Russia and Ukraine, which will allow Putin to put out the sanctions his missteps threaten, has cut the prices of commodities which will have to cut prices if there is peace. Gold fell; palladium futures fell more sharply, by 7.5%. The electric vehicle industry which sank on high prices for copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earths got some of its mojo back. 

In European trading, our top performer was Banco Santander SAN, up 4.5%. Apart from sanctions whose scope cannot be determined yet, the country now has a new outbreak of covid-19 in Shenzhen, the mainland city closest to Hong Kong, whose Hang Seng Index fell 5% today on the viral risk.

Tencent TCEHY fell even more on reports that it will be hit with fines over its Wechat pay charges being hidden from users. The fine being talked about is about 0.1% of the profits it earns. 

Drug dealers

We will all have to get a 4th dose (second booster) against covid19 this year. Drug companies will gain.

*Our FDA-approved lynparza for breast cancer treatment developed by Merck MRK and AstraZeneca AZN. We own both.

*Swiss Roche RHHBY whose US sub-Genentech is a partner of Biogen (BIIB) is up a lot because BIIB reported that its Spinraza empowers motor function in infant spinal muscular atrophy. Its drug for Alzheimer's is proving difficult but this is another potential blockbuster. 

*While I mentioned SAN above, the real winner today was BioNTech BNTX up 14.89% on hopes for new sales for the covid-19 variant. Even if it takes time, the local player is at an advantage. 

*Also up is Moderna, MRNA, ahead 14.%. No 

*Pfizer gained 4.3%. PFE.

*Novavax gained 6.6%. NVAX.

*Merck fell on a downgrade from Berenberg which cut its target price to $87 from $92. MRK.

*Israeli TEVA fell 2.54%.

*Japan's EISAI (ESALY) rose 1.78%.


*Oil patch shares like Schlumberger SLB and VALE fell 2%+ because crude oil futures fell 8% on the hopes for talks Russo-Ukraine talks.

*Our worst performer was Energy Fuels, UUUU, down an11% excessive. It is a rare US alternative to Chinese rare earths which are not going to become cheaper.

*Colombia's Ecopetrol EC fell 2.56% on obstacles to its decarbonization plans using offshore gas fields that have a swan population. I think swans can be moved.

*Petrobras was given a $17 target price, up for $14, by JP Morgan. PBR.

*Newbie Coterra continues to gain in price and forecasts as analysts work on it. CTRA.

Where to go now?

*As before I think the best place to put money into now is Canada. BCE the telco; Manulife Financial, an insurer; Bank of Nova Scotia, up 1% today.

*You can also find havens in financials elsewhere, like ABB, up 2.9%, and American Express, up 3.33%.

We will go to London on April 10 to deal with issues there. We will above all try to get my Trans-Siberian Gold proceeds from sale into my own hands rather than those of a Cyprus company designated by the British firm which sold the shares. In fact, there are no exchange controls in the UK so the whole thing is simply stupid.

Disclosure: None.

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