For some, he was a poor devil, for others, he got what he deserved. Yes, we are talking about the weather frog Phil Conners, alias Bill Murray. In the movie “Groundhog Day”, he gets trapped in a never-ending time loop on 2nd February and is forced to repeatedly report on the only incidence in the small town of Punxsutawney, PA. The event we are talking about here is whether or not a groundhog, also named Phil, will see his shadow when leaving his hole. In that case, the winter is prolonged for another six weeks. For the annual groundhog day, thousands of people arrive but also leave happily again. Not Phil Conners. He stays and stays and stays. He stays until a tricky love story between him and Rita (played by Andie MacDowell) evolves and manages to escape the time loop. But how does all that relate to The Home Depot? Well, this year, the company started a campaign on Facebook and asked its customers in a survey what they expect from this year’s groundhog day. A customer named Sandra Geldart promptly responded: “I expect my appliances I ordered that still haven’t arrived!” This is what the groundhog day at the home depot looks like!

History

From the chart below, we see how the bulls constantly pushed the stock to higher regions from April last year and onwards. This trend stopped at $292.90, which was reached in September for the first time. In the following weeks, the bulls fought hard to overcome this threshold, while the bears were focused on pulling the price down below $262.08. It was a close battle, and both scenarios had similar probabilities.

Home Depot 4h Chart from 15.01.2021

(Click on image to enlarge)

Primary scenario

The primary scenario has changed in the current chart. There is a slight tendency towards a bullish scenario. With a probability of 62%, we see that Home Depot (HD) should overcome the threshold at $292.90.

Home Depot 4h Chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

Alternative scenario

From an alternative perspective, which has a probability of currently 38%, we see the stock in a superordinate corrective structure. In detail, this means that the bears will pull the price for the stock under $262.08, and the following downward trend would end somewhere around $236. In the short-run, this is certainly not very good for our positions, but on the other hand, in the long-run, we would certainly prefer this scenario, in order to stock up our long-positions at a low price. Accordingly, we have already indicated a relevant entry point and marked it in blue with alt.4. From there, the price for this stock should increase sustainably.