Here’s Why These Analysts Are Cautious On Mobileye Following $15 Billion Intel Deal


Shares in Mobileye (NYSE:MBLY) soared by 29% on March 13 following the announcement that computer-chip giant Intel (INTC) intends to acquire Mobileye for $15.3 billion- making this the largest purchase in the self-driving car sector. Intel is offering an eyebrow-raising 40% premium on Mobileye’s share price before the deal (although we note that Mobileye prices did trade at $63 back in 2015).

As shares spiked, analysts acted quickly to downgrade the driverless tech company. With shares at these high levels and an attractive deal lined up (making the chances of a competing bid extremely unlikely), there is little, if any, upside potential left for investors looking to develop a MBLY position.

The analyst consensus rating on TipRanks has now shifted from Strong Buy to Hold with Dougherty’s Charlie Anderson double downgrading the stock to sell. Only 2 analysts currently have buy ratings on MBLY as opposed to the previous 10, while the average analyst price target represents a -5.5% downside from the current share price.

In particular, five-star Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill has a hold rating on the stock, although despite this the deal has increased his confidence in the driverless market in general: “We also view this deal as a positive read-through into the entire ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) and automotive supply chain, namely: ON Semi, MU, CY, NXPI, NVDA, TSEM, and Infineon (NC)”.

Gill differentiates between ADAS and fully autonomous vehicles, as he predicts that in the next 3-4 years the predominant volume of vehicles will have advanced driver capabilities rather than full autonomous driving. According to TipRanks, Gill has a very impressive 100% success rate and 53.6% return on his Mobileye stock ratings.

Similarly, top RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak cut his rating to hold, although his price target on the stock of $63 represents a 4% upside from the current share price. He says the deal is a “good outcome” for Mobileye and is dismissive of the idea of a rival bid: “The deal size limits Tier 1 suppliers so it would likely have to be from another tech player that has a large balance sheet and an interest in the automotive TAM (and arguably one that is behind on efforts).”

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