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Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report results on its fiscal third quarter on Wednesday, October 22, with a conference call scheduled for 5:30 pm EDT.

MUST OWN: Last week, Melius Research analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of "must own" Tesla with a Buy rating and $520 price target. "The disruptive force of AI will wreck multi trillion-dollar industries, starting with auto," said the firm, which believes Tesla is unique in its ability to deliver on this potential. Melius cites assumed success in autonomous vehicles, though the firm acknowledges that the valuation in such a company is "guesswork."

SELL TESLA: Bearish on the name, BNP Paribas Exane analyst James Picariello initiated coverage of Tesla on Thursday with an Underperform rating and $307 price target. Tesla's two AI-led ventures - the Robotaxi and the Optimus business - generate zero sales today, but inform about 75% of the firm's $1.02T valuation, notes the analyst, who takes an "optimistic view toward both." While BNP Paribas said its base case assumes achieves "quite a lot," including an active 2030 Robotaxi fleet of about 525,000 and 17M cumulative Optimus deliveries by 2040, it contends that 2026 consensus estimates appear "far too high."

CONTRASTING STORIES: Barclays analyst Dan Levy raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $350 from $275, while keeping an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Tesla enters Q3 earnings with two contrasting "stories," namely an accelerating autonomous and AI narrative bolstered by Elon Musk's proposed comp package and a weakening fundamental backdrop, the analyst tells investors. The firm is expecting a Q3 EPS beat, supported by gross margin and volume strength, but is "leaning neutral to slightly negative" into the print following a recent rally given its "muted view" on fundamentals going forward, the analyst added in a preview.

Meanwhile, Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on In Line-rated Tesla to $300 from $235. The firm cites broader market pricing of Call Options. Evercore is raising its "Tale of 2 TSLA" framework to $300 on 75% implied market probability of $1Trn Call Options plus $400B Core Industrial Tesla.

DELIVERIES: Tesla stated that, "In the third quarter, we produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products - a record for both deliveries and deployments. Thank you to all our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve these results." The company reported Q3 deliveries of 481,166 Model 3/Y units, 15,933 of other models, and Q3 production of 435,826 Model 3/Y vehicles and production of 11,624 of other models.

Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in Q3, well above expectations, driven by a surge in demand ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiration, though deliveries are expected to soften in Q4 and FY25, Cantor Fitzgerald tells investors in a research note. Energy storage hit a record 12.5 GWh, surpassing all of FY24 and reinforcing growth in that segment, the firm says, adding that the launch of lower-priced "Standard" Model 3 and Model Y trims is well timed to offset lost tax incentives and capture more budget-conscious consumers. Cantor has an Overweight rating and $355 price target on Tesla shares into the earnings report.

OUTLOOK: According to current consensus data from Yahoo Finance, Tesla is expected to report Q3 EPS of 56c and Q3 revenue of $26.7B.

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