Good News, Bad News, Markets Don’t Care

Markets popped higher this morning after a weekend of good news: The Donald and Xi Jinping have agreed to a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war. The Donald has eased trade restrictions on Huawei. And The Donald made nice with North Korea.

On Friday, I explained that markets were at that critical point where they could either roll over and die or zoom to the moon. Monday’s market action shows we’re clearly following the Dark Window that I forecast back in January already. I hope you’re taking advantage of it.

I first mentioned the Dark Window opportunity in January. While I’ve updated you on the market’s progress along with this scenario many times since then, it’s been a long time since I spelled out my forecast. So, in light of today’s market madness, let’s take a trip down memory lane and re-read an email I sent you on January 9th.

I’ve added some highlighted notes below to account for events we’ve seen since this was published.

How the Nasdaq Could Reach 10,000 in 2019

Who would have thought I would be forecasting that the Nasdaq could zoom to 10,000 this year? [Up until this point, I was known as the market bear with nothing but doom and gloom predictions…]

Two things have changed my perspective in recent months: The Q4 2018 crash didn’t approach the typical 40% loss in the first two to three months, as was typical of most major bubbles… and my newer 90-Year Bubble Buster Cycle.

That 90-year Cycle is a “double variation’ of my proven 45-Year Innovation Cycle. It has marked the greatest bubble peaks and “resets” since the Industrial Revolution (1837 to 1842 and 1929 to 1932).

If the current correction doesn’t crash down much harder by early February – which doesn’t look likely at this point [and it didn’t] – then a final blow-off rally would be most consistent with past major bubbles, especially the ones that hit on this 90-year cycle.

What I’ve Been Looking At…

I’ve been looking at the final bubble rallies on all the key indices: The S&P 500, the Dow, and especially the Nasdaq because it’s the lead bubble of the lot.

What I am noticing is that the best support on the final rallies since early 2009 come from a linear trend-line through the bottoms, but the best rally and upside targets come from exponential trend-lines through the tops.

Here’s my best chart for the leading Nasdaq… 

(Click on image to enlarge)

What This Chart Is Telling Us…

First, note that bottom linear trend-line. It comes through at around 5,500 in early February [and currently that line in the sand is 5,700 – 5,800 just ahead].

The same trend-line on the S&P 500 comes through around 2,300 currently and will be hit first, and hence, be the first warning, if broken, that this Nasdaq support line could be hit. Again, the Nasdaq is the trump card here.

Follow me on Twitter @harrydentjr

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