FTSE Breaking Out

Ahead of the Bank of England meeting today, the FTSE has broken out to its highest levels since May 2023. A weaker-than-forecast inflation reading earlier in the week has prompted speculation that we might hear a more dovish skew from the BOE today. With inflation falling quickly again, traders will be looking for signs that the BOE is getting closer to a point where it can begin easing. Currently, the market is pricing in rate cut by August. However, this pricing could well be brought forward today depending on what we hear from Bailey and co, with FTSE vulnerable to further upside if the bank does strike a dovish tone.

Voting Split in Focus

Along with the bank’s decision and outlook today, traders will also be focusing on the voting split to see if there has been any change. At the last meeting members voted 2 (hike) 6 (hold) 1 (cut). If we see the vote for hikes falling and/or the votes for cuts increasing, this should be firmly bullish for the FTSE near-term, supporting the view that the bank is getting closer to easing. Indeed, with the BOE’s chief economist recently signalling that the bank could cut rates ahead of inflation falling back to target, this week’s CPI data should see the bank striking a more dovish tone.

Technical Views

FTSE

The rally in the FTSE has seen the pair testing above the 7811 range highs today, having been capped by the level since Maty last year. With momentum studies bullish, the outlook remains bullish while we hold above this level with 8023.5 the next target for bulls. To the downside, 7678.8 remains key support.  

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