BOE on Thursday

The FTSE is seeing some light selling through early European trading on Monday. The main focus this week will of course be the Bank of England rates meeting on Thursday. While the BOE is not expected to cut rates at this juncture, traders will be looking for a clear signal that easing is coming, essentially setting up an August rate cut. If seen, this should see demand kicking for the FTSE. However, if the bank takes a more reserved approach and refrains from signalling forthcoming easing, this could see the current sell-off deepen.

UK Inflation Due on Wednesday

Ahead of the meeting we’ll get the latest UK CPI data on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling steadily in the UK with CPI almost back at the bank’s 2% target. This time around, the market is looking for CPI to drop to 2% from 2.3% annualised. If seen, this should keep dovish expectations intact, fuelling upside in the FTSE. However, if we see any surprise stickiness in the data or an unexpected uptick, this will likely muddy the outlook. In all, risks appear skewed to the upside for the FTSE this week with inflation and the BOE likely to create selling pressure in GBP.

Technical Views

FTSE

The sell off in the FTSE is fast approaching a test of the 8023.5 level support. This is a key area for the market and bulls will need to defend this zone to prevent a drop down to deeper support at the 7811 level next, in line with bearish momentum studies readings. 

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