Forecasting The Market Requires Knowing The Magnitude Of The Anxiety We'll Experience

Nobel laureate and Yale Professor Robert J. Shiller sees the ability to predict the future price behavior of the market requires knowing both the economic impact of the virus but also the impact of investors' ability to control their anxiety. He points out this fear from the same yet different in that you can take action with your investments, but with the virus, it's not as apparent. He also points out that it's not uplifting when both types of anxiety are working in tandem. Many people think the market's reaction is a direct byproduct of the virus.

But, it's more complicated, market anxiety has a life of its own. He points to "affect heuristic," which is when people become emotional because of a high magnitude adverse shock and respond with dread even in conditions where there is no genuine reason to be fearful. Following progressive reductions in stock prices, creates an emotional sense of disappointment for not selling, together with a dread that one may sell at the bottom. Eventually, people will start to wrap their heads around the stories of the number of people that have died (and companies that cease to exist) and begin to dwell on it. It's not the fear that we need to fear, it's the anxiety and worry.

 

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