Exuberance?... What Exuberance?

There is no shortage of digital ink that paints the market as irrationally over-bought, but we have been pointing out that the AAII sentiment readings are at levels of fear that are seen near market lows, not at market tops Chart below).

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We have also shown that the put:call ratio, while low relative to the recent past, is in fact high relative to the start of the dotcom bubble (chart below).

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Exuberance in the stock market is also not marked by low margin levels; sentimentrader.com points out that margin levels are at levels consistent with market lows (chart below).

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The evidence is that we are in a market that is closer to a bottom than it is to a top. The market won't go straight up, but we are not even close to exuberance.

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