Let's get a few things out of the way first:

• I believe earnings reports provide the best and most consistent catalyst for trading.
• I believe waiting for an earnings report to occur ('post earnings') before executing a trade will provide the most consistent and profitable trading results.
• I believe expectations drive all markets.
• I believe there is no one trading methodology that is perfect (or even close to perfect). In other words, do your homework.

These beliefs are based on my 18 years of experience with collecting, reviewing, sampling, and analyzing earnings expectations (whisper numbers). They are the basis of my articles, thoughts, and analysis presented here.

At the beginning of every week, I will review prior commentary to see what progress has been made. And then I will list those stocks that consistently see positive or negative price movement based on historical analysis of beating or missing earnings expectations. (It should be noted that not all stocks see consistent post earnings price movement in an 'expected' direction.)

Let's look at some highlights from the past few weeks alerts - all alerts were issued pre-market open on the date listed with an entry at market open:

A positive price move was expected after Coach (COH) reported earnings of $0.45. This was four cents ahead of the analysts estimate and two cents ahead of the whisper number. The average 25-day price move when exceeding the whisper number is +10.5%. Coach opened trading on 8/9 at $40.03 and currently trades at a $40.47 level and rising. Immediately following earnings the stock moved 2.6% lower (against our expectation). It's good to see a move in the right direction and we have a ways to go to the anticipated exit date of 9/13.

A negative price move was expected after Disney (DIS) reported earnings of $1.62. This was one cent ahead of the analyst estimates but two cents short of the whisper number. The average 25-day price move when missing the whisper number is -6.5%. Disney opened trading on 8/10 at $96.70 and currently trades at a $95.97 level and falling. A negligible move to date as we're still a ways away from our anticipated exit date of 9/14.

A positive price move was expected after Macy's (M) reported earnings of $0.54. This was nine cents ahead of the analysts estimate and ten cents ahead of the whisper number. The average 20-day price move when exceeding the whisper is +4.4%. Macy's opened trading on 8/11 at $38.90 and currently trades at a $40.00 level and rising. A 2.8% gain in this position is halfway to our price target and we're still a ways away from our anticipated exit date of 9/8.

A positive price move was expected after Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings of $0.53. This was sixteen cents ahead of the analyst estimates and fourteen cents ahead of the whisper number. The average 15-day price move when exceeding the whisper is +6.1%. Nvidia opened trading on 8/12 at $61.90 and currently trades at a $62.91 level and rising. This 1.9% gain is limited but is certainly better than the recent weakness. We've got some time to see more strength prior to our anticipated exit date of 9/1.

We just issued two early exit alerts for State Street (STT) and Bristol-Myers (BMY). We issued a long position alert for 25-day classic reactor State Street on July 27th. Our data indicated a target price move of +8.1% in twenty-five trading days. State Street opened trading on 7/27 at 60.33 and just yesterday hit a 69.29 level and higher. This was a +14.9% price move, ahead of our expectation and our target exit date so we took an early exit with decent profits.

We issued a short position alert for 20-day classic reactor Bristol-Myers on July 28th. Our data indicated a target price move of -6.8% in twenty trading days. BMY opened trading on 7/28 at 75.41 and yesterday traded at a 59.78 level and lower. This was a 20.7% price move, ahead of our expectation and our target exit date so we took an early exit with a very strong gain.

This coming week I'll be looking at the following stocks that represent potential earnings plays:

Tiffany (TIF) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, August 25th. The whisper number (earnings expectation) is $0.73, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate and showing limited confidence from traders. Whispers range from a low of $0.70 to a high of $0.75. Tiffany has a 63% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 32 of the 51 earnings reports for which we have data).

While the whisper number expectation itself is important, but my primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Without knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report you can't determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, I analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The strongest price movement of +1.3% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +1.5% within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

But let's narrow the analyses down to a more current time frame - the past four years. I have found that analyzing the past four years of earnings reports (and subsequent price movement) provides the best time frame for the most consistent post earnings price movement predictions.

The strongest price movement (over the past four years of earnings) of +3.0% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -5.0% within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. As you can see, the stock is no longer just a 'positive' price reactor, but what I consider a 'classic' price reactor. The stock has a 79% reaction accuracy - meaning (on average) 8 out of 10 earnings reports will result in the stock price moving higher when the company tops the whisper number expectation, and lower when it misses.

What we have so far is a stock that on average should top expectations (63%), overall has a positive (but limited) post earnings price reaction (beat or miss), and based on more recent earnings analysis has a 79% reaction accuracy of moving higher/lower as expected post earnings. Only thing missing is actual earnings and once they report I'll be sending our clients an email alert with appropriate long or short position direction based on the above data.

It should be noted that last quarter Tiffany reported earnings of $0.64. This was four cents short of the analysts estimate and three cents short of the whisper number. The expected (average) 20-day price move when missing the whisper was -5.1%. The stock did move lower but only by 1.5%.

Next week I'll be keeping an eye on Joy Global (JOY). Joy Global is expected to report earnings on Thursday, September 1st. The whisper number (earnings expectation) is $0.11, one cent behind the analysts' estimate and showing little confidence from traders. Joy Global has a 61% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 20 of the 33 earnings reports for which we have data).

The strongest price movement of +5.7% comes within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +7.2% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

The strongest price movement (over the past four years of earnings) of +10.9% comes within five trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -11.2% within fifteen trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. This stock is considered a 'classic' price reactor. The stock has between a 75% and 80% reaction accuracy - meaning (on average) 8 out of 10 earnings reports will result in the stock price moving higher when the company tops the whisper number expectation, and lower when it misses.

On average Joy should top expectations (61%), overall has a positive (but limited) post earnings price reaction (beat or miss), and based on more recent earnings analysis has a 75% to 80% reaction accuracy of moving higher/lower as expected post earnings. After they report I'll be sending our clients an email alert with appropriate long or short position direction based on the above data.

It should be noted that last quarter Joy Global reported earnings of $0.09. This was nine cents ahead of the analysts estimate and twelve cents ahead of the whisper number. The expected average 15-day price move when exceeding the whisper was +5.1%. On the same day that alert was issued, I sent out an early exit alert. Joy opened trading at 18.26 and moved 9.3% higher, well ahead of our expectation and our target exit date.

There are (and will be) more than enough trade opportunities with earnings. As I stated earlier, they provide the best and most consistent catalyst for trading.