Was the entire AI story just an enormous bubble?

The AI story, at least as it pertains to Big Tech hyper-scalers, is imploding in real-time.

Oracle (ORCL) has erased ALL of its 2024-2026 gains and is sitting on its long-term bull market trendline.

Microsoft (MSFT) is in a similar position after erasing a year’s worth of gains in a matter of weeks. It MSFT shares don’t hold here, the next line of note is $100 lower.

Amazon (AMZN) is testing its bull market trendline from 2022 lows. AMZN shares have effectively gone NOWHERE since mid-2024. 

Ditto for Meta (META). Mark Zuckerberg went “all in” on AI, dropping EIGHT figure deals to secure talent from Apple and other Big Tech names. But if META shares don’t hold here…

The one bright spot in the hyper-scaler space is Alphabet (GOOGL), but this chart has “bubble” written all over it. GOOGL shares are up over 140% in the last year. God help investors if this thing reverses.

These are “do or die” moments for these charts. If they take out their bull market trendlines the AI bull market is OVER at least as far as the hyper-scalers currently building out AI networks/ infrastructure.

Bear in mind, Big Tech accounts for ~35% of the S&P 500’s weight. So, if these companies collapse, the overall market will follow.

Put another way, the odds of a bear market increasing rapidly. This chart has certainly got me thinking…

For investors, the #1 question is whether the bull market is about to end and it’s time to “sell the farm” … or if what’s coming is another opportunity to “buy the dip.”

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