Daily Stock Pick: Humana

This week, I looked for the sixth healthcare representative of six for my Ivy portfolio.

That healthcare sector includes ten industries all related to testing, diagnosing and treating what ails us. Healthcare industries are: biotechnology; diagnostics & research; drug manufacturers - major and - specialty & generic; healthcare plans; long-term care facilities; medical care; medical devices; medical distribution; medical supplies.

Today I'm reviewing a large-cap healthcare plan company named Humana Inc. Their trading ticker symbol is HUM.

Humana is one of the largest private insurance organizations participating in the Medicare Advantage program. The firm has built a niche specializing in government-sponsored programs, with nearly all its medical membership stemming from individual and group Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and the military's TRICARE program.

Additionally, the firm is a leader in stand-alone prescription drug plans offered to seniors enrolled in traditional fee-for-service Medicare. In addition, the firm has a nascent commercial offering focusing on risk arrangements alongside specialty offerings such as dental, vision, and life for smaller employers.

As of December 31, 2018, the company had approximately 17 million members in medical benefit plans, as well as approximately 6 million members in specialty products.

Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

I use three key data points to gauge dividend paying equities or funds like Humana Inc:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Besides those three, several other keys will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest.

Those three basic keys, however, best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money.

HUM Price

Humana's price per share closed at $262.51 Wednesday. A year ago its price was $300.85. Price fell $37.34 or 12.4% in the past year.

Assuming Humana's stock trades in the range of $240.00 to $320.00 this year, Humana's recent $262.51 price could rise by $27.49 and go to $290.00 by early July 2020.

HUM Dividends

Humana's most recent quarterly dividend is $0.55 payable, July 26th.

That $0.55 Q payout equates to an annual dividend of $2.20 which produces a yield of 0.84% based on yesterday's $262.51 closing price.

Gains For HUM?

Adding the $2.20 annual estimated dividend to my $27.49 estimate of Humana's price upside shows a $29.69 potential gross annual gain, per share, which will be reduced by costs to trade those shares.

Say we pay a little over $1,000.00 today at the $262.51 recent stock price would buy 4 Humana Inc equities.

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale will cost us $2.50 per share.

Subtract that $2.50 brokerage cost from the estimated $29.69 gross annual gain leaves a net gain of $27.19 X 4 shares = $108.78 or a 10.35% net gain on a $1,050.04 investment.

Therefore, Humana Inc whose trading ticker symbol is HUM now shows a possible net gain of 10.35% including a 0.84% dividend yield.

Twenty-three brokers track Humana Inc stock:

Eleven brokers say "Buy" HUM.

Seven brokers say HUM will "outperform" peers.

Five brokers say "Hold" your HUM shares.

Their consensus score of 1.74 equates to "outperform."

Now we can look at Humana Inc and see it has made money, is making money, and could net a 10.35% gain including a 0.84% dividend yield. It could be more, it could be less.   

The above speculation is based on past year performance. The actual results remain to be seen to determine if Humana Inc is worth your time and money.

Disclosure: This article was compiled by Rydlun & ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.