Daily Stock Pick: Cedar Fair

This week, I'm looking for the fourth consumer cyclical sector representative of five for my Ivy portfolio.

The cyclical sector includes twenty-eight industries ranging from Advertising Agencies to Apparel, Autos, Broadcasting, Department Stores, Gambling, Leisure, Lodging, Packaging, Personal Services, Shoes, Restaurants, Rubber, Plastics, Textiles, and all such consumer aimed enterprises.

Today I'm reviewing a mid-cap leisure company, named Cedar Fair LP. Its trading ticker symbol is FUN.

Cedar Fair LP operates amusement park-resorts located in various states across USA and Canada. All their parks have facilities for people from all age groups as well as other rides and attractions.

The Partnership's portfolio of parks includes Cedar Point, Kings Island, Canada's Wonderland, Dorney Park and the Wildwater Kingdom, Valleyfair, Michigan's Adventure, Kings Dominion, Carowinds, Worlds of Fun, Knott's Berry Farm, and California's Great America.

Other than these parks, the partnership also holds a contract to operate few other parks. Revenues are obtained from amounts paid to gain admission to parks.

Cedar Fair Management, Inc. serves as the general partner of Cedar Fair, L.P. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Sandusky, Ohio.

I use three key data points to gauge the value of any dividend equity-like Cedar Fair LP:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Besides those three, several other keys will finally unlock an equity or fund in which to invest.

Those first three primary keys, however, best tell whether a company has made, is making, and will make money.

FUN Price

Cedar Fair's price per share closed at $52.70 yesterday. A year ago its price was $64.91. Price fell $12.21 or over 18.5% in the past year.

Assuming Cedar Fair's stock trades in the range of $40 to $70 this year, Cedar Fair's recent $52.70 price could rise by $2.30 and go to $55.00 by late-March, 2020.

FUN Dividends

Cedar Fair's most recent Quarterly dividend was $0.925 declared in February and paid March 20th.

That $0.925 Q dividend equates to an annual payout of $3.70 for a yield of 7% at yesterday's $52.70 closing price.

Gains For FUN?

Adding the $3.70 annual estimated dividend to my $2.30 estimate of Cedar Fair's price upside shows a $6.00 potential gross annual gain, per share, which will be reduced by costs to trade those shares.

Say we put a little over $1,000.00 today at the $52.70 recent stock price would buy us 19 Cedar Fair LP shares.

A $10 broker fee paid half at purchase and half at sale costs $0.53 per share.

Subtract that $0.53 brokerage cost from the estimated $6.00 gross annual gain leaves a net gain of $5.47 X 19 shares

= $103.93 or a 10.35% net gain on a $1,001.30 investment.

Therefore, Cedar Fair LP whose trading ticker symbol is FUN, now shows a possible net gain of nearly 10.35% including a 7% dividend yield.

Nine brokers cover this stock:

Seven say "buy" FUN shares.

Two say "hold" FUN shares.

Therefore, you can look at Cedar Fair LP and see it has made money, is making money, and could throw a net gain of about 10.35% including a 7% dividend yield. It could be more, it could be less.

The above speculation is based on past year performance. The actual results remain to be seen to determine if Cedar Fair LP is worth your time and money.

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