Image Source: Pixabay

People's United Financial Inc has the ticker symbol PBCT and is a mid-cap member of the financial services sector as a regional bank. This is my first report on Peoples United Financial for this Vista folio. It was previously selected for one of my earlier portfolios.

People's United Financial Inc has nearly $39 billion of assets. People's United Bank is one of the New England-based banks and among the top 50 in the U.S. Of the bank's 405 locations, 40% are in Connecticut, where it ranks third by deposit market share. It also ranks among the top 10 in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. The bank offers brokerage, financial advisory and wealth management, and insurance services. Commercial real estate accounts for 35% of the loan book, C&I and equipment financing accounts for another 35%, and the rest is in mortgages and consumer.

It operates through a network of 417 branches in Connecticut, southeastern New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire, as well as 631 ATMs. The company was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Bridgeport, Connecticut.

Shareholders last month approved a merger of PBCT with M&T Bank Corporation by the end of the year.

Three key data points gauge dividend equities or funds like Peoples United Financial Inc:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money. 

PBCT Price

People's price per share closed at $19.08 yesterday. One year ago its price was $11.74. Thus, price per share grew over 62.5% year over year as it recovered from the Covid doldrums. 

Should PBCT's stock trade in the range of $10 to $20.00 this next year, its recent $19.08 price might rise by $0.50 to reach $19.58 by June 2, 2022. My estimate is based on the median PBCT's fourteen analyst 1yr price estimates. 

PBCT Dividends

People's most recent quarterly dividend of $0.1825 was paid May 15th and equates to $0.73 annually which will yield 3.83% based on yesterday's $19.08 closing price. PBCT has paid quarterly dividends increasing annually since 1992 (29 years.) Buying the lower-priced shares of PBCT will take advantage of the merger later this year with the larger M&T Bank. A lower dividend yield may result from the merger but at this time you are getting the best price for the combined entity.

PBCT Returns

Adding the $0.73 annual People's United forward-looking dividend to my $0.50 price upside estimate shows a $1.23 potential gross gain, per share, to be reduced by any costs to trade the shares. Say we invest a little under  $1000 in PBCT at $19.08 per share, we'd buy 52 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged) would be paid half at purchase and half at a sale and might cost us about $0.19 per share.

Subtract that maybe $0.19 brokerage cost from my estimated $1.23 gross gain per share results in a net gain of $1.04 X 52 shares = $54.08 for a 5.4% net gain on a $992.16 investment.

So it is that Peoples United Financial Inc shows a possible 5.4% net gain including a 3.83% forward estimated dividend yield. 

Over the next year at this time, a $1000 investment in PBCT would generate $38.30 in cash dividends. And a single share bought at yesterday's closing price was just over $19.00! So, if PBCT is your kind of regional bank investment, Peoples United Financial Inc's share price of about half the expected annual dividend income from $1,000 invested, not counting the merger transaction repercussions. This suggests now is a good time to add Peoples United Financial Inc to your stock holdings. 

All of the estimates above are speculation based on the past history of Peoples United Financial Inc. Only time and money invested in this stock will determine its true worth.