Could The Marvel Cinematic Universe Become An $18 Billion Franchise?

Could the Marvel Cinematic Universe Become an $18 Billion Franchise?

Yesterday, Marvel gave the world a full timeline for Phase 3 of their film franchise, which will culminate in a two-part Avengers event called Infinity Warthat wraps in 2019.

The franchise, which got its start with Iron Man in 2008, has now launched nine international blockbusters that have combined to earn $6.9 billion at the worldwide box office. The weakest film in the franchise, the first Captain America, grossed $370 million worldwide. The Avengers, Marvel's highest-grossing film to date, was a $1.5 billion mega-blockbuster that currently sits in third place on the all-time global rankings. In between those two films are five films on the top 100 highest-grossing list, one that just misses out on the top 100, and Thor, which grossed $450 million worldwide.

Nothing Marvel has released since The Avengers in 2012 has grossed less than $645 million worldwide, and the upcoming Avengers: Age of Ultron has been greeted with the sort of ecstatic freakout that all but guarantees a $1 billion-plus bow.

Yesterday's event adds another nine titles to a Marvel Cinematic Universe that's already grossed almost $7 billion ($6.875 billion, not counting The Incredible Hulk), not including the two films not on the timeline that are slated for a 2015 release. All told, these nine films could easily push the MCU's total take past $15 billion, which would make the $4 billion Disney (DIS) paid to buy Marvel five years ago look like an absolute steal. Let's take a look at Marvel's slate of upcoming films to see why $15 billion is easily within reach:

Avengers: Age of Ultron -- May 1, 2015

You've probably already seen the trailer for Age of Ultron -- it's been viewed almost 50 million times in the past week -- but if you haven't, here it is:

Just about everything in this trailer looks more exciting than the first Avengers. Evil killer super-robots! An army of killer super-robots! Hulk vs. Iron Man in the Hulkbuster armor! New superheroes! Cap's shield gets broken! You get the picture. A lot of people, myself included, will be very surprised if this moviedoesn't break Avengers' $1.5 billion mark worldwide. A $1.5 billion global gross seems like a conservative estimate, but let's go with that here.

Estimated gross: $1.5 billion. MCU lifetime gross to date: $8.375 billion.

Ant-Man -- July 17, 2015

Although casting the talented and charismatic Paul Rudd in the title role seems like a great choice for one of the more offbeat and lesser-known Marvel properties, it may not be able to escape Age of Ultron's long shadow. Ant-Man isn't exactly a well-known superhero, but optimists will point out that Guardians of the Galaxy has already passed a $750 million worldwide gross despite the fact that the biggest name in its credits, the similarly talented and charismatic Bradley Cooper, was essentially playing back-up as the voice of an angry space raccoon. This one is probably going to be one of Marvel's weakest launches from here on out, but it'll probably veer closer to Thor 1's $450 million than Cap 1's $370 million.

Estimated gross: $425 million. MCU lifetime gross to date: $8.8 billion.

Captain America: Civil War -- May 6, 2016

Pay no attention to the "Serpent Society" subhead on the timeline above. That was just a head-fake designed to lead us into a more interesting surprise: Robert Downey, Jr.'s Iron Man will likely co-star in Civil War as the main big bad in a storyline that will pit superhero against superhero. The original Civil War comic arc was widely reviled by the comics community, but you can expect Marvel to make the necessary changes that will leave audiences salivating at the prospect of Iron Man vs. Captain America. This could easily reach Iron Man 3's $1.2 billion total at the global box office, and might even top The Avengers by the end of its run.

Estimated gross: $1.35 billion. MCU lifetime gross to date: $10.15 billion.

Doctor Strange -- Nov. 4, 2016

Hollywood hotshot Benedict Cumberbatch has been tapped to star as the good Doctor in what will be the first truly "magical" film of the MCU. Cumberbatch is no stranger to effects-heavy magical blockbusters, as shown by his mo-cap turn in the Hobbit trilogy, and playing Marvel's Sorceror Supreme should give the talented Brit an excellent opportunity to spread his wings on the big screen.

Most Marvel superheroes' origins are cloaked in a sci-fi rationale -- even Thor's Asgard has its fair share of interstellar technology -- but Strange is pure fantasy, which should give audiences a breather after nearly a decade of flying robot suits and gamma-radiated monsters. Cumberbatch's high profile will give the lesser-known Strange a wider fan base right off the bat, and fantasy films are well-represented on the global top-grossing list. Could Strange pass The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug ($958 million worldwide) as Cumberbatch's top-grossing fantasy flick? It probably won't, but it could easily hit Thor 2's $645 million take.

Estimated gross: $645 million. MCU lifetime gross to date: $10.795 billion.

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 -- May 5, 2017

Guardians is already a $750 million film, which is the best opening ever for a newly-introduced slate of Marvel characters -- the old record was Iron Man's $585 million. It could pass $800 million before it leaves international theaters, but based on Marvel's earlier successes in building sub-franchises within the MCU, we can probably expect Guardians 2 to top out around Iron Man 3's $1.2 billion take.

Estimated gross: $1.25 billion. MCU lifetime gross to date: $12.045 billion.

Thor: Ragnarok -- July 28, 2017

Ragnarok means "fate of the gods" in Norse, and its depiction as Norse mythology's last battle lends this title more than a bit of finality. Thor 2 grossed $645 million worldwide, and Ragnarok will likely bring back fan favorite bad guy turned sorta-good guy Loki for something on the scale of his attempted takeover in The Avengers. Upping the ante while keeping the big draws of earlier films guarantees that this will pass Thor 2's take, but by how much?

A Thor comic-book arc from 2006 follows an evil cyborg clone of Thor called Ragnarok, so this film's title could be a nod to its big baddie. Will Marvel fans have cyborg fatigue after Age of Ultron, or will the two-year lapse between that film and this one rekindle the world's interest in watching superheroes smash evil robots? Ragnarok probably won't pass Iron Man 3's $1.2 billion, and a release so soon after Guardians 2 might diminish its drawing power, but it should easily surpass Guardians' $750 million, and then some.

Estimated gross: $850 million. MCU lifetime gross to date: $12.895 billion.

Black Panther -- Nov. 3, 2017

Black Panther will be Marvel's first clearly non-white superhero (not counting Hulk's green skin or Guardians' non-human characters) to appear on the big screen. Chadwick Boseman of 42 and Get on Up has signed a five-picture deal to play the Panther, and the character will be familiar to audiences after debuting in a supporting role in 2016's Civil War. However, the Panther's backstory is closely connected with African mysticism, which may be harder to translate to the big screen than a robotic battle suit or a wizard's elemental powers.

Boseman has the lowest profile of any actor thus far tapped to launch a new superhero, and certain attitudes in certain parts of the world may limit the film's appeal. Despite these obstacles, I still expect Black Panther to pass Cap 1's $370 million, and possibly come close to Thor 1's $450 million.

Estimated gross: $405 million. MCU lifetime gross to date: $13.3 billion.

Avengers: Infinity War Part I -- May 4, 2018

Here we go! Like many "final" films in a series, the third Avengers has been split in two parts to properly depict the enormity of events that will take place. Marvel's event strongly suggests that the big bad of Infinity War will be Thanos, that funky-skinned alien you might remember smirking in Avengers' post-credits teaser. Here's a teaser trailer filmed at the event that gives us a clue of what's to come:

You can expect more buildup in the films set for release between now and 2018, and rumor has it that Marvel will pile its entire stable into Infinity War for the battle to end all battles. This two-parter has the potential to top at least one of James Cameron's $2 billion juggernauts on the all-time list, but it'll probably fall to the second half to take the crown. Still, if this one doesn't smash past Age of Ultron, it'll be somewhat akin to the last Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter films not surpassing their predecessors at the box office. Everyone wants to see the end.

Estimated gross: $1.9 billion. MCU lifetime gross to date: $15.2 billion.

Captain Marvel -- July 6, 2018

Marvel continues to diversify its superhero slate here with its first headlining female superhero. The current female Captain Marvel has only held that title for two years in the comics, but Marvel has shown such an uncanny ability to build relatively unknown properties into global blockbusters that her brief tenure won't be an issue.

A list of Captain Marvel's powers reads rather like Superman with a dash of Thor's control of lightning, so the stakes will be very high for her debut, which may actually happen with a supporting role in the first Infinity War. Last year's Superman relaunch Man of Steel cleared almost $670 million at the global box office despite a rather crummy script. Can Captain Marvel do better? Let's expect it to do about the same, although it could be hurt by a release date so soon afterInfinity War.

Estimated gross: $670 million. MCU lifetime gross to date: $15.87 billion.

Inhumans -- Nov. 2, 2018

The Inhumans are at least as unknown to the general public now as the Guardians of the Galaxy were before Disney's ad blitz turned them into a phenomenon. These characters were originally a supporting cast for the Fantastic Four, but Fox still owns the rights to that franchise and will reboot it next year, so don't expect them to show up. Since this crew plays a part in the Infinity Warcomic arc, we're likely to see a lot of buildup to their appearance in the secondInfinity War film here. I really have no clue what will happen here, but even a weak Marvel film is generally guaranteed to clear $350 million worldwide.

Estimated gross: $350 million. MCU lifetime gross to date: $16.22 billion.

Avengers: Infinity War Part II -- May 3, 2019

This will be the movie event of 2019, and possibly of the entire decade, which is saying a lot considering all of the monster blockbusters that could launch between now and then. Everything builds up to this, and Marvel's already promised the payoff to end all payoffs. With five years to go, you can bet they'll be working like mad to make sure it works. Avatar grossed almost $2.8 billion worldwide on the strength of its 3-D, even though its story kind of sucked. This grand finale may not make it that far, but if Marvel pulls everything off properly, it should passTitanic to become one of three $2 billion films ever released.

Estimated gross: $2.25 billion. MCU lifetime gross to date: $18.47 billion.

What do you think? Could Marvel really top out at more than $18 billion in box-office receipts? Was I way off base with some of my estimates? Let me know!

Disclosure: None.

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