Coca-Cola And A Non-Sugar Shift

Coca Cola, Coke, America, Hawaii, Big Iland, Lahaina

Coca-Cola (KO) has a vast global distribution system that offers it the capability of reaching essentially every human on the planet.

The company is best known for its iconic soft drinks but nearly 40% of its revenues come from non-soda brands across the non-alcoholic spectrum, including PowerAde, Fuze Tea, Glaceau, Dasani, Minute Maid and Schweppes.

While the near-term outlook is clouded by pandemic-related stay-at-home restrictions, secular trends away from sugary sodas, high exposure to foreign currencies (now perhaps a positive) and always-aggressive competition, Coca-Cola’s longer-term picture looks bright.

Relatively new CEO James Quincey (2017), a highly regarded company veteran with a track record of producing profit growth and making successful acquisitions, is reinvigorating the company by narrowing its oversized brand portfolio, boosting its innovation and improving its efficiency.

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The company is also working to improve its image (and reality) of selling sugar-intensive beverages that are packaged in environmentally insensitive plastic.

Coca-Cola is supported by over $21 billion in cash which offsets much of its $53 billion in debt. Its growth investing, debt service and $0.41/share quarterly dividend are well covered by free cash flow.

The stock has about 30% upside to our $64 price target. While the valuation is not statistically cheap, at 23.6x estimated 2021 earnings of $2.09 and 21.6x estimated 2022 earnings of $2.28 (both estimates slipped a cent in the past week), the shares are undervalued while also offering an attractive 3.3% dividend yield. We rate the stock a buy.

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