LDL cholesterol is a Toxic Risk Factor.

Results from a long-term study on the efficacy of a new generation of LDL cholesterol reducing drugs fell short of expectations and clobbered four stocks: Amgen (AMGN), Esperion (ESPR), The Medicines Company (MDCO) and Regeneron (REGN).

Amgen released data from its FOURIER study on Repatha  showing a 15% relative risk reduction (RRR) of having a heart attack, stroke or other heart related health problems compared to a placebo. So the data looked good but Wall Street wanted more. The Amgen PCSK9 inhibitor drug (evolocumab) Repatha showed that lowering the LDL cholesterol conferred a benefit regardless of initial cholesterol level so is likely to be prescribed to higher risk patients.The study involving 27,564 patients over 2.2 years was compared to statin drugs. For lower risk patients there may not be a sufficient reduction in mortality to justify adoption by payers considering the Repatha drug is priced at $14,500/year.

Repatha(R) revenue for 2016 was $141M and Regeneron  $116M with a similar drug without any insurance reimbursement. Sales estimates for the Amgen cholesterol drug out to Year 5 are in the $2B range.

So risk reduction for LDL lowering drugs is significant, better than statins, but pricing is an issue. Still many analysts believe the drug is a breakthrough and will be used in high risk patients.

Esperion Therapeutics Inc.  was down 20% and The Medicines Company was down 8% as both have similar drugs in development.

Amgen was down 6.38% closing at $168.61 about where it opened. Regeneron was down 3.13% to $380.29 after being as low as $370.68. Amgen remains a hold  in the Rayno Biopharmaceutical Portfolio.

The biotech sector took another hit on this news, already buffeted by the Trump budget which cuts NIH funding and concerns about the makeover to the ACA, lower prices and fewer patients.

• IBB $295.28 down 1.11%, off Wednesday highs of $303.
• XBI $71 down 0.59%
• XLV $75.16 down 0.55%, weakest sector lately.