Charged: Tesla Seen Losing Share To Ford In U.S., Volkswagen In Europe

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In this latest edition of "Charged,"  we look at some analysts' notes, news and activity in the electric vehicle and clean energy space.

EV MARKET SHARE IN U.S., EUROPE

Tesla's (TSLA) hold on the electric vehicle market is showing early signs of slipping, as major competitors push rival models in their race to catch up to Elon Musk's attempt to build an electric-car future, The Wall Street Journal's Rebecca Elliott said this week. In the U.S., Ford's (F) electric SUV, the Mustang Mach-E, has started eating into Tesla's market share, while in Europe, Volkswagen (VWAGY) surpassed Musk's company to become the top-selling all-electric car maker there last year, Elliott reported, citing new market data. In other markets, including Asia, Tesla's market shares has held steady or grown, Elliott noted.

MODEL S PLAID PLUS RESERVATIONS

After having updated its online configurator to change pricing on several models on Wednesday, Tesla has now updated the Model S online configurator again to change the delivery timeline for the new Model S Plaid Plus, pushing the estimated delivery date out to "mid-2022," according to Electrek's Fred Lambert.

NEW BATTERIES

LG Chem is looking to provide EV maker Tesla with "advanced battery cells" in 2023, wrote Hyunjoo Jin of Reuters. Additionally, LG is considering production facilities in the U.S. and Europe, Reuters added, citing sources. "LG plans to produce 4680 cells at its new U.S. factory. They plan to build a new 4680 cell line to supply Tesla's Giga Berlin in Europe," said a source for the story.

BUY TESLA, NIO, LI 

On Tuesday, New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral with a $900 price target. He sees "more and more tangible indications" that Tesla has ample room to grow deliveries in the next two years and his forecast implies Tesla could deliver $12 of earnings per share in 2023, which Ferragu noted is more than 50% over current consensus expectations. With its Berlin and Texas factories ramping, Tesla should reach 2M unit capacity by the end of 2022 and quadruple deliveries in three years, the analyst estimates. In addition, he sees the acceleration of EV deliveries in Europe as centered on the low end and thinks in the premium segment, "Tesla remains unapproached."

On Wednesday, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh initiated coverage of "100-year disruptor" Tesla with a Buy rating and $775 price target, calling the company "the global leader in the EV market." He sees Tesla remaining the leader in what he identifies as "one of the fastest-growing global markets," noting that the market for electric vehicles is expected to grow at about a 30% compound annual growth rate through 2030. Rakesh believes Tesla's model, "similar to Apple's (AAPL) vertically integrated model," drives innovation and pushes manufacturing costs lower.

Rakesh also started coverage of NIO (NIO) with a Buy rating and $60 price target. NIO is a "leader and innovator" in the premium automotive electric vehicle segment and is domiciled in China, the largest electric vehicle market globally, the analyst told investors in a research note. He views the company's premium offering with a lower cost of ownership through its novel battery-as-a-service battery swap module as a "key differentiation from peers." With just 0.1% share of overall global light vehicle production, NIO has "significant upside" as it expands in China, into Europe in the second half of 2021, and potentially into other markets, Rakesh added.

Meanwhile, Needham analyst Vincent Yu initiated coverage of another EV maker, Li Auto (LI), with a Buy rating and $37 price target. The analyst is positive on the company's "differentiated" EV products and relatively higher margins. Yu also stated that Li Auto's "unique value proposition," focused strategy, and "diligent" margin and costs control, make the stock a "quality asset" in the growing electric vehicle space, further adding that China EV market has seen double-digit increases in monthly sales since May 2020 while China government targets a 20% EV penetration of the auto market by 2025.

SECTOR "ATTRACTIVELY" POSITIONED

Cowen analyst Gabe Daoud initiated coverage of Blink Charging (BLNK) with an Outperform rating and $38 price target as part of starting coverage on EV charging with a positive bias. Overall, the sector is attractively positioned and he envisions significant long-term value creation, Daoud told investors. Blink, which owns, operates, and supplies level 2 and DCFC charging equipment, has "plenty of dry powder to pursue organic growth and/or M&A," he added.

"ROBUST" BATTERY DEMAND GROWTH

Cowen analyst Gabe Daoud initiated coverage of QuantumScape (QS) with an Outperform rating and $57 price target. The analyst has positive bias on the battery technology sector saying the electrification of mobility thematic will drive "robust" battery demand growth through 2030. Daoud likes QuantumScape's solid-state tech "that shows game-changing potential," and thinks the industry is likely to see additional disruptors emerge for a total addressable market that approaches $230B by 2030.

Daoud also started coverage of Romeo Power (RMO) with an Outperform rating and $18 price target. Romeo Power is positioned "further downstream" with a focus on battery module and pack production for commercial vehicles, Daoud told investors in a research note. The analyst forecasts the company will scale manufacturing over the coming years, leading to gross margins in the 30-35% range longer-term as declining battery prices are offset by scale and premium offerings.

BUY NEXTERA ENERGY

Credit Suisse analyst Michael Weinstein upgraded NextEra Energy (NEE) on Monday to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $85, down from $87. The analyst cited valuation for the upgrade following the stock's recent underperformance. Management continues to emphasize that they would be "disappointed" if results were not near the top end of 6%-8% growth off a 2021 base, Weinstein pointed out.

ON THE SIDELINES

Cowen analyst Gabe Daoud initiated coverage of Beam Global (BEEM) with a Market Perform rating and $33 price target as part of starting coverage on EV charging with a positive bias. Overall, the sector is attractively positioned and he envisions significant long-term value creation, Daoud told investors. Beam's patented solar-powered EV ARC products are a renewable energy source for electric vehicle charging equipment, but given its higher prices keep most customers on the sidelines, he forecasts the company will "grab only 2% of the pie in out years."

Disclaimer: TheFly's news is intended for informational purposes only and does not claim to be actionable for investment decisions. Read more at  more

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